Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 25/10, 16:30

Prediction: Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby

Team pages: Mjällby AIF · Hammarby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Mjällby AIF0.82

Hammarby1.84

1X2

16% 23% 61%

Mjällby AIF Draw Hammarby

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Mjällby AIF 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDDLDL

Hammarby 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Mjällby AIF 4–2 Hammarby (6 last)

Mjällby AIF2-1Hammarby
Hammarby3-0Mjällby AIF
Hammarby1-2Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF3-1Hammarby
Hammarby3-0Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF3-0Hammarby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjällby AIF 1444 · Hammarby 1579

	Mjällby AIF	Draw	Hammarby
Our model	15%	24%	60%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (rating 1444 vs 1579).
H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjällby AIF	Hammarby
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.4	5.2 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.39 ★
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:58 +15’	5.25	4.33	1.53
16:18 +6’	5.50▲	4.33	1.53
18:36 +2’	5.75▲	4.33	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +306’	5.44	4.33	1.54
12:53 +28’	5.54▲	4.38▲	1.53▼
17:56 +42’	5.69▲	4.39▲	1.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjällby AIF 4–0–2 Hammarby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Sweden Cup	Mjällby AIF	2-1 HT 2-1	Hammarby
04/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	3-0 HT 2-0	Mjällby AIF
22/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	1-2 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
18/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	3-1 HT 3-1	Hammarby
28/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	3-0 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF
15/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	3-0 HT 3-0	Hammarby

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	24	17	4	3	55	30	55
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	24	14	4	6	50	21	46
4	BK Hacken	24	11	9	4	43	30	42
5	Elfsborg	24	11	8	5	37	24	41
6	Vasteras SK	24	11	5	8	35	36	38
7	Malmo FF	24	11	3	10	38	34	36
8	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	34	43	36
9	AIK	24	9	7	8	38	42	34
10	GAIS	24	8	6	10	30	25	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	24	5	8	11	28	40	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	6	4	14	23	38	22
14	Degerfors	24	5	5	14	21	37	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	4	6	14	29	54	18
16	Halmstad	24	3	5	16	16	45	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjällby AIF	Hammarby
Degerfors	1-1 D	1-0 W
GAIS	0-3 L	2-0 W
AIK	1-1 D	2-3 L
BK Hacken	1-1 D	3-0 W
Djurgarden	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mjällby AIF

LWLLLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
07/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
03/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	4	L
31/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	1	1	L
15/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	4-3	7	5	W
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L

Hammarby

DWWWLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
11/10	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
13/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
06/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
30/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
16/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
09/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	12	2	W
26/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	11	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby win (61%). Probabilities: Mjällby AIF 16%, draw 23%, Hammarby 61%.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Mjällby AIF 0.82 · Hammarby 1.84), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.