Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 29/10, 18:30

Prediction: Hammarby vs Sirius

Team pages: Hammarby · Sirius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Hammarby1.74

Sirius1.08

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Hammarby Draw Sirius

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDWWLW

Sirius 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Hammarby 3–1–2 Sirius (6 last)

Sirius2-0Hammarby
Hammarby2-2Sirius
Sirius3-1Hammarby
Hammarby3-2Sirius
Hammarby4-0Sirius
Sirius0-3Hammarby

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (rating 1571 vs 1527).
H2H favours Hammarby: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby	Sirius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.2 / 8.3	2.4 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.83

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.50
X	4.61 → 4.61	Pinn 4.61
2	5.54 → 5.54	Pinn 5.54

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +37’	1.50	4.61	5.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby 3–1–2 Sirius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	2-0 HT 1-0	Hammarby
22/03/26 Sweden Cup	Hammarby	2-2 HT 0-1	Sirius
24/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-1 HT 1-0	Hammarby
14/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	3-2 HT 1-1	Sirius
14/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Hammarby	4-0 HT 3-0	Sirius
26/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	0-3 HT 0-2	Hammarby

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	25	17	4	4	56	32	55
2	Djurgarden	25	15	3	7	52	23	48
3	Hammarby	24	14	4	6	50	21	46
4	BK Hacken	25	12	9	4	47	30	45
5	Elfsborg	25	11	9	5	37	24	42
6	Vasteras SK	25	11	5	9	36	38	38
7	Malmo FF	25	11	4	10	38	34	37
8	AIK	25	10	7	8	40	43	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	34	43	36
10	Brommapojkarna	25	9	6	10	39	43	33
11	GAIS	24	8	6	10	30	25	30
12	Mjällby AIF	24	5	8	11	28	40	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	6	4	15	23	41	22
14	Degerfors	25	5	5	15	21	41	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	4	7	14	31	56	19
16	Halmstad	25	4	5	16	18	46	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby	Sirius
Degerfors	1-0 W	2-0 W
Brommapojkarna	3-1 W	2-2 D
Orgryte IS	1-1 D	2-1 W
AIK	2-3 L	1-2 L
GAIS	2-0 W	1-0 W
BK Hacken	3-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hammarby

DWWWLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
11/10	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
13/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
06/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
30/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
16/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
09/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	12	2	W
26/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	11	2	D

Sirius

DLLLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	12	3	L
18/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
19/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
15/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-4	8	5	L
10/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-2	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby vs Sirius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby win (52%). Probabilities: Hammarby 52%, draw 26%, Sirius 22%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby vs Sirius?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Hammarby 1.74 · Sirius 1.08), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby vs Sirius?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.