Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Malmo FF vs Hammarby

Team pages: Malmo FF · Hammarby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Malmo FF0.95

Hammarby1.65

1X2

21% 25% 54%

Malmo FF Draw Hammarby

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWLDW

Hammarby 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWLWW

Head-to-head

Malmo FF 2–1–3 Hammarby (6 last)

Hammarby4-1Malmo FF
Malmo FF1-3Hammarby
Hammarby2-0Malmo FF
Hammarby2-2Malmo FF
Malmo FF2-0Hammarby
Hammarby1-3Malmo FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF 1534 · Hammarby 1592

	Malmo FF	Draw	Hammarby
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (rating 1534 vs 1592).
H2H favours Hammarby: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF	Hammarby
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	5 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.52
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.12 ★
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.71

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:15 +6’	4.20	3.90	1.70
03:22 +6’	4.50▲	3.90	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +31’	3.95	3.88	1.79
20:47 +39’	4.37▲	4.05▲	1.71▼
22:48 +25’	4.61▲	4.11▲	1.67▼
10:26 +9’	4.45▼	4.05▼	1.70▲
18:13 +11’	4.52▲	4.12▲	1.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF 2–1–3 Hammarby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	4-1 HT 3-1	Malmo FF
27/10/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-3 HT 0-3	Hammarby
23/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	2-0 HT 0-0	Malmo FF
02/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	2-2 HT 2-0	Malmo FF
07/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-0 HT 1-0	Hammarby
17/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	1-3 HT 0-2	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	26	17	4	5	56	34	55
2	Hammarby	26	16	4	6	54	21	52
3	Djurgarden	26	15	4	7	53	24	49
4	BK Hacken	26	12	10	4	47	30	46
5	Elfsborg	26	11	10	5	39	26	43
6	Vasteras SK	26	12	5	9	39	38	41
7	Malmo FF	26	12	4	10	41	34	40
8	AIK	26	10	8	8	42	45	38
9	IFK Goteborg	26	10	8	8	36	45	38
10	GAIS	26	9	7	10	32	26	34
11	Brommapojkarna	26	9	7	10	39	43	34
12	Mjällby AIF	26	6	8	12	30	43	26
13	Kalmar FF	26	6	4	16	23	42	22
14	Degerfors	26	5	5	16	21	44	20
15	Orgryte IS	26	4	7	15	32	58	19
16	Halmstad	26	4	5	17	18	49	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF	Hammarby
Halmstad	3-0 W	1-0 W
BK Hacken	0-1 L	3-0 W
Kalmar FF	1-0 W	4-0 W
Orgryte IS	4-1 W	1-1 D
AIK	0-0 D	2-3 L
Djurgarden	0-3 L	0-1 L
GAIS	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF

WLWDWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
23/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
12/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
13/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
16/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	5	W

Hammarby

WWWLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
18/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
11/10	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
13/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
06/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
30/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
16/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
09/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	12	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF vs Hammarby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby win (54%). Probabilities: Malmo FF 21%, draw 25%, Hammarby 54%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF vs Hammarby?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Malmo FF 0.95 · Hammarby 1.65), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.