Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 03/11, 19:00
Prediction: Sirius vs Halmstad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Sirius2.23
Halmstad0.69
1X2
Sirius
Draw
Halmstad
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sirius
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Halmstad
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sirius
3–1–2
Halmstad
(6 last)
- Halmstad0-2Sirius
- Halmstad0-1Sirius
- Sirius1-1Halmstad
- Halmstad3-1Sirius
- Sirius3-0Halmstad
- Halmstad2-1Sirius
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sirius 1536 · Halmstad 1468
| Sirius | Draw | Halmstad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | 73% | 16% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1536 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Sirius: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sirius | Halmstad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.6 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 3–1–2 Halmstad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Sweden Allsvenskan | Halmstad | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sirius |
| 09/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Halmstad | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sirius |
| 27/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Sirius | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Halmstad |
| 19/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Halmstad | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Sirius |
| 01/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Sirius | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Halmstad |
| 02/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Halmstad | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sirius |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 34 | 55 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 21 | 52 |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 24 | 49 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 47 | 30 | 46 |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 39 | 26 | 43 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 38 | 41 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 34 | 40 |
| 8 | AIK | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 45 | 38 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 45 | 38 |
| 10 | GAIS | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 26 | 34 |
| 11 | Brommapojkarna | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 43 | 34 |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 43 | 26 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 42 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 44 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 32 | 58 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 49 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sirius | Halmstad |
|---|---|---|
| AIK | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Elfsborg | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Orgryte IS | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Degerfors | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Vasteras SK | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Malmo FF | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| BK Hacken | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sirius (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sirius
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/09 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
Halmstad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/10 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/10 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sirius vs Halmstad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sirius win (73%). Probabilities: Sirius 73%, draw 17%, Halmstad 10%.
How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Halmstad?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Sirius 2.23 · Halmstad 0.69), with a 58% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Halmstad?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.