Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 14/08, 19:00

Prediction: Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK

Team pages: Elfsborg · Vasteras SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Elfsborg1.66

Vasteras SK1.13

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Elfsborg Draw Vasteras SK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Elfsborg 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Vasteras SK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Elfsborg 2–1–0 Vasteras SK (3 last)

Vasteras SK2-2Elfsborg
Elfsborg1-0Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK0-1Elfsborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elfsborg 1506 · Vasteras SK 1489

	Elfsborg	Draw	Vasteras SK
Our model	49%	27%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Elfsborg: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elfsborg	Vasteras SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:05 +3’	1.90	3.50	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg 2–1–0 Vasteras SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	2-2 HT 0-0	Elfsborg
02/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	1-0 HT 1-0	Vasteras SK
07/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	0-1 HT 0-0	Elfsborg

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	15	13	2	0	42	17	41
2	Hammarby	16	9	3	4	36	15	30
3	Djurgarden	14	8	2	4	33	15	26
4	BK Hacken	16	6	7	3	28	26	25
5	AIK	16	7	4	5	22	24	25
6	Elfsborg	16	6	6	4	21	18	24
7	GAIS	16	6	5	5	21	15	23
8	Malmo FF	16	7	2	7	31	27	23
9	Vasteras SK	15	6	4	5	24	29	22
10	IFK Goteborg	16	5	4	7	22	35	19
11	Kalmar FF	16	5	3	8	21	24	18
12	Mjällby AIF	15	4	5	6	20	20	17
13	Brommapojkarna	15	4	5	6	20	24	17
14	Degerfors	16	3	4	9	14	27	13
15	Orgryte IS	16	3	4	9	20	37	13
16	Halmstad	16	1	4	11	11	33	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elfsborg	Vasteras SK
Mjällby AIF	1-0 W	0-0 D
Malmo FF	2-1 W	3-2 W
GAIS	0-1 L	0-1 L
Orgryte IS	2-2 D	2-0 W
Halmstad	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vasteras SK (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Elfsborg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
12/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
05/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
28/06	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
29/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
25/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
21/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	8	1	D

Vasteras SK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-6	1	3	L
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
04/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
28/06	AIK Club Friendly List	1-2	2-3	1	1	L
31/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-4	4-5	7	2	L
24/05	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
09/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elfsborg win (49%). Probabilities: Elfsborg 49%, draw 27%, Vasteras SK 25%.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Elfsborg 1.66 · Vasteras SK 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.