Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 31/08, 19:00

Prediction: Djurgarden vs Mjällby AIF

Team pages: Djurgarden · Mjällby AIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Djurgarden2.05

Mjällby AIF0.97

1X2

61% 22% 16%

Djurgarden Draw Mjällby AIF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Djurgarden 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWLLW

Mjällby AIF 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Djurgarden 2–2–2 Mjällby AIF (6 last)

Mjällby AIF1-1Djurgarden
Djurgarden1-3Mjällby AIF
Djurgarden1-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF1-3Djurgarden
Djurgarden0-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF0-1Djurgarden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Djurgarden 1526 · Mjällby AIF 1457

	Djurgarden	Draw	Mjällby AIF
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	61%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgarden (rating 1526 vs 1457).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Djurgarden	Mjällby AIF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.1	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.53▼	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.70 ★
2	5.25 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	1.55	4.00	5.25
04:49 +5’	1.53▼	4.20▲	5.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	1.57	4.60	4.79
01:26	1.52▼	4.76▲	5.09▲
10:19 +1’	1.53▲	4.67▼	5.09
11:22	1.52▼	4.70▲	5.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Djurgarden 2–2–2 Mjällby AIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-1 HT 0-1	Djurgarden
15/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	1-3 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
15/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	1-1 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
25/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-3 HT 0-2	Djurgarden
06/02/24 Club Friendly List	Djurgarden	0-1 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF
30/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	0-1 HT 0-1	Djurgarden

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	18	13	3	2	47	26	42
2	Hammarby	18	11	3	4	42	15	36
3	BK Hacken	18	8	7	3	32	26	31
4	Djurgarden	17	9	2	6	37	19	29
5	Elfsborg	18	7	7	4	25	19	28
6	AIK	17	8	4	5	25	25	28
7	Malmo FF	18	8	2	8	32	30	26
8	Vasteras SK	18	7	5	6	25	32	26
9	Brommapojkarna	18	6	6	6	27	27	24
10	GAIS	18	6	5	7	21	18	23
11	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
12	IFK Goteborg	18	5	5	8	23	39	20
13	Kalmar FF	18	5	4	9	21	28	19
14	Degerfors	18	4	4	10	17	29	16
15	Orgryte IS	18	3	5	10	22	41	14
16	Halmstad	18	1	5	12	12	35	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Djurgarden	Mjällby AIF
AIK	1-3 L	1-2 L
Vasteras SK	0-1 L	0-0 D
Degerfors	1-0 W	4-1 W
BK Hacken	4-2 W	0-1 L
Sirius	2-3 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mjällby AIF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Djurgarden

LLWWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
16/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	1-3	5	6	L
10/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
03/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	6-0	5	3	W
25/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
20/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	13	4	D
13/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
06/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-2	8	4	W
22/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
18/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	7	5	L

Mjällby AIF

WLDDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	4-3	7	5	W
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
17/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
11/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
03/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-4	3	1	D
25/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
21/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Djurgarden vs Mjällby AIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Djurgarden win (61%). Probabilities: Djurgarden 61%, draw 22%, Mjällby AIF 16%.

How many goals are expected in Djurgarden vs Mjällby AIF?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Djurgarden 2.05 · Mjällby AIF 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Djurgarden vs Mjällby AIF?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.