Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 07/09, 19:00

Prediction: Malmo FF vs AIK

Team pages: Malmo FF · AIK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Malmo FF1.94

AIK1.19

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Malmo FF Draw AIK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWLWLW

AIK 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Malmo FF 2–4–0 AIK (6 last)

AIK0-1Malmo FF
Malmo FF0-0AIK
AIK0-0Malmo FF
AIK0-0Malmo FF
Malmo FF5-0AIK
AIK0-0Malmo FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF 1558 · AIK 1576

	Malmo FF	Draw	AIK
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Malmo FF: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF	AIK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.72
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.21 ★
2	3.90 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +4’	1.75	3.90	3.90
07:32 +3’	1.70▼	4.00▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:48 +1’	1.67	4.35	4.26
01:50	1.71▲	4.23▼	4.15▼
10:54	1.72▲	4.21▼	4.09▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF 2–4–0 AIK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	0-1 HT 0-1	Malmo FF
22/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	0-0 HT 0-0	AIK
14/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	0-0 HT 0-0	Malmo FF
15/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	0-0 HT 0-0	Malmo FF
28/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	5-0 HT 3-0	AIK
23/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	0-0 HT 0-0	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	19	13	3	3	47	27	42
2	Hammarby	19	11	3	5	44	18	36
3	Djurgarden	18	10	2	6	41	19	32
4	Elfsborg	19	8	7	4	27	19	31
5	BK Hacken	19	8	7	4	33	29	31
6	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
7	Malmo FF	19	9	2	8	33	30	29
8	Vasteras SK	19	8	5	6	28	33	29
9	GAIS	19	7	5	7	25	18	26
10	Brommapojkarna	19	6	6	7	27	31	24
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	17	5	5	7	24	27	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	19	4	4	11	17	31	16
15	Orgryte IS	19	3	5	11	22	42	14
16	Halmstad	19	2	5	12	13	35	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF	AIK
Sirius	1-0 W	0-3 L
Djurgarden	0-3 L	3-1 W
GAIS	1-0 W	2-0 W
IFK Goteborg	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF

WWWDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
16/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
02/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
12/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
04/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
30/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	5-2	4	1	W

AIK

WLWWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
16/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-1	1	6	W
08/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
02/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
27/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
18/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
11/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
05/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
30/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	9	7	L
24/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF vs AIK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF win (54%). Probabilities: Malmo FF 54%, draw 24%, AIK 22%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF vs AIK?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Malmo FF 1.94 · AIK 1.19), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs AIK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.