Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 06/09, 14:00

Prediction: Orgryte IS vs Hammarby

Team pages: Orgryte IS · Hammarby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Orgryte IS0.94

Hammarby2.73

1X2

10% 16% 74%

Orgryte IS Draw Hammarby

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Orgryte IS 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLLDL

Hammarby 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Orgryte IS 0–1 Hammarby (1 last)

Hammarby8-1Orgryte IS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orgryte IS 1453 · Hammarby 1544

	Orgryte IS	Draw	Hammarby
Our model	10%	16%	74%
Market	10%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (rating 1453 vs 1544).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orgryte IS	Hammarby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	4.7 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.75

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.93

2 (-1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Pinn 9.69
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.51 ★
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +3’	9.50	5.75	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:22 +2’	8.95	6.09	1.25
11:36	9.48▲	6.47▲	1.25▼
14:33 +1’	9.69▲	6.51▲	1.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orgryte IS 0–0–1 Hammarby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	8-1 HT 4-1	Orgryte IS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	18	13	3	2	47	26	42
2	Hammarby	19	11	3	5	44	18	36
3	Elfsborg	19	8	7	4	27	19	31
4	BK Hacken	19	8	7	4	33	29	31
5	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
6	Djurgarden	17	9	2	6	37	19	29
7	Vasteras SK	19	8	5	6	28	33	29
8	Malmo FF	18	8	2	8	32	30	26
9	Brommapojkarna	18	6	6	6	27	27	24
10	GAIS	18	6	5	7	21	18	23
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	19	4	4	11	17	31	16
15	Orgryte IS	19	3	5	11	22	42	14
16	Halmstad	19	2	5	12	13	35	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orgryte IS	Hammarby
Brommapojkarna	1-3 L	1-1 D
AIK	3-4 L	2-3 L
BK Hacken	4-3 W	3-0 W
Kalmar FF	0-3 L	4-0 W
Elfsborg	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orgryte IS

DLWDLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
08/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-4	3	3	L
02/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
24/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
20/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	5	4	W
05/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
29/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	4	3	D

Hammarby

LLWWWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
16/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
09/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	12	2	W
26/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	11	1	D
19/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
12/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
31/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-3	8	5	L
24/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orgryte IS vs Hammarby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby win (74%). Probabilities: Orgryte IS 10%, draw 16%, Hammarby 74%.

How many goals are expected in Orgryte IS vs Hammarby?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Orgryte IS 0.94 · Hammarby 2.73), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Hammarby?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.