Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 05/09, 17:30

Prediction: Vasteras SK vs Sirius

Team pages: Vasteras SK · Sirius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Vasteras SK1.47

Sirius2.3

1X2

23% 22% 55%

Vasteras SK Draw Sirius

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasteras SK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWLDW

Sirius 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

Vasteras SK 2–1–2 Sirius (5 last)

Sirius4-1Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK1-2Sirius
Sirius0-0Vasteras SK
Sirius1-3Vasteras SK
Sirius0-3Vasteras SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasteras SK 1541 · Sirius 1584

	Vasteras SK	Draw	Sirius
Our model	23%	21%	55%
Market	23%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1541 vs 1584).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasteras SK	Sirius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	2.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	3.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.53 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.16
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:07 +5’	4.10	4.00	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +1’	4.53	4.16	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasteras SK 2–1–2 Sirius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	4-1 HT 3-0	Vasteras SK
31/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	1-2 HT 1-1	Sirius
20/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	0-0 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK
03/02/24 Club Friendly List	Sirius	1-3 HT 0-2	Vasteras SK
29/02/20 Sweden Cup	Sirius	0-3 HT 0-2	Vasteras SK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	18	13	3	2	47	26	42
2	Hammarby	19	11	3	5	44	18	36
3	Elfsborg	19	8	7	4	27	19	31
4	BK Hacken	19	8	7	4	33	29	31
5	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
6	Djurgarden	17	9	2	6	37	19	29
7	Vasteras SK	19	8	5	6	28	33	29
8	Malmo FF	18	8	2	8	32	30	26
9	Brommapojkarna	18	6	6	6	27	27	24
10	GAIS	18	6	5	7	21	18	23
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	19	4	4	11	17	31	16
15	Orgryte IS	19	3	5	11	22	42	14
16	Halmstad	19	2	5	12	13	35	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasteras SK	Sirius
BK Hacken	3-1 W	0-3 L
Elfsborg	0-3 L	3-1 W
Mjällby AIF	0-0 D	3-4 L
Halmstad	3-1 W	2-0 W
IFK Goteborg	4-5 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasteras SK

LWWDWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
23/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
10/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-6	1	3	L
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
04/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
31/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-4	4-5	7	2	L

Sirius

WWDWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
15/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-4	8	5	L
10/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
03/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
12/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
03/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-4	9	1	D
30/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasteras SK vs Sirius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sirius win (55%). Probabilities: Vasteras SK 23%, draw 22%, Sirius 55%.

How many goals are expected in Vasteras SK vs Sirius?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Vasteras SK 1.47 · Sirius 2.3), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasteras SK vs Sirius?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.