Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 07/09, 19:00

Prediction: Kalmar FF vs Djurgarden

Team pages: Kalmar FF · Djurgarden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Kalmar FF1.17

Djurgarden1.81

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Kalmar FF Draw Djurgarden

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kalmar FF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDLLDL

Djurgarden 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Kalmar FF 2–1–3 Djurgarden (6 last)

Djurgarden3-2Kalmar FF
Djurgarden1-1Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF2-1Djurgarden
Kalmar FF2-1Djurgarden
Djurgarden3-1Kalmar FF
Djurgarden3-2Kalmar FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kalmar FF 1477 · Djurgarden 1554

	Kalmar FF	Draw	Djurgarden
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgarden (rating 1477 vs 1554).
H2H favours Djurgarden: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kalmar FF	Djurgarden
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	3.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +16’	3.90	3.70	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kalmar FF 2–1–3 Djurgarden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	3-2 HT 2-2	Kalmar FF
06/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	1-1 HT 0-1	Kalmar FF
20/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 1-1	Djurgarden
12/11/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 0-0	Djurgarden
08/05/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	3-1 HT 2-0	Kalmar FF
14/08/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	3-2 HT 2-0	Kalmar FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	19	13	3	3	47	27	42
2	Hammarby	19	11	3	5	44	18	36
3	Djurgarden	18	10	2	6	41	19	32
4	Elfsborg	19	8	7	4	27	19	31
5	BK Hacken	19	8	7	4	33	29	31
6	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
7	Malmo FF	19	9	2	8	33	30	29
8	Vasteras SK	19	8	5	6	28	33	29
9	GAIS	19	7	5	7	25	18	26
10	Brommapojkarna	19	6	6	7	27	31	24
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	17	5	5	7	24	27	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	19	4	4	11	17	31	16
15	Orgryte IS	19	3	5	11	22	42	14
16	Halmstad	19	2	5	12	13	35	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kalmar FF	Djurgarden
Halmstad	0-1 L	3-0 W
Vasteras SK	0-0 D	0-1 L
BK Hacken	1-1 D	4-2 W
Mjällby AIF	2-1 W	4-0 W
Malmo FF	2-2 D	3-0 W
Orgryte IS	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Djurgarden (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kalmar FF

LWLDWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
09/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
01/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
12/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
05/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
30/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Djurgarden

LWWDWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-0	4	1	W
24/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
16/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	1-3	5	6	L
10/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
03/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	6-0	5	3	W
25/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
20/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	13	4	D
13/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
06/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-2	8	4	W
22/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kalmar FF vs Djurgarden?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Djurgarden win (51%). Probabilities: Kalmar FF 24%, draw 25%, Djurgarden 51%.

How many goals are expected in Kalmar FF vs Djurgarden?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Kalmar FF 1.17 · Djurgarden 1.81), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgarden?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.