Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 06/09, 16:30

Prediction: Brommapojkarna vs Elfsborg

Team pages: Brommapojkarna · Elfsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Brommapojkarna1.16

Elfsborg1.42

1X2

30% 27% 42%

Brommapojkarna Draw Elfsborg

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Brommapojkarna 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLDLDWW

Elfsborg 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Brommapojkarna 1–2–3 Elfsborg (6 last)

Elfsborg2-0Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna3-0Elfsborg
Elfsborg4-3Brommapojkarna
Elfsborg1-1Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna3-3Elfsborg
Elfsborg3-0Brommapojkarna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brommapojkarna 1471 · Elfsborg 1550

	Brommapojkarna	Draw	Elfsborg
Our model	30%	29%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (rating 1471 vs 1550).
H2H favours Elfsborg: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brommapojkarna	Elfsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.32 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:47 +6’	3.00	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +3’	3.25	3.51	2.10
20:52 +1’	3.28▲	3.55▲	2.11▲
23:36	3.32▲	3.57▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Brommapojkarna 1–2–3 Elfsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	2-0 HT 0-0	Brommapojkarna
30/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Brommapojkarna	3-0 HT 0-0	Elfsborg
15/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	4-3 HT 2-2	Brommapojkarna
01/03/25 Sweden Cup	Elfsborg	1-1 HT 1-0	Brommapojkarna
01/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Brommapojkarna	3-3 HT 2-1	Elfsborg
06/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	3-0 HT 1-0	Brommapojkarna

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	18	13	3	2	47	26	42
2	Hammarby	19	11	3	5	44	18	36
3	Elfsborg	19	8	7	4	27	19	31
4	BK Hacken	19	8	7	4	33	29	31
5	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
6	Djurgarden	17	9	2	6	37	19	29
7	Vasteras SK	19	8	5	6	28	33	29
8	Malmo FF	18	8	2	8	32	30	26
9	Brommapojkarna	18	6	6	6	27	27	24
10	GAIS	18	6	5	7	21	18	23
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	19	4	4	11	17	31	16
15	Orgryte IS	19	3	5	11	22	42	14
16	Halmstad	19	2	5	12	13	35	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brommapojkarna	Elfsborg
Degerfors	2-0 W	2-0 W
Orgryte IS	3-1 W	2-2 D
Sirius	2-2 D	1-3 L
Malmo FF	1-2 L	2-1 W
Hammarby	1-1 D	1-2 L
IFK Goteborg	1-2 L	1-1 D
GAIS	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Brommapojkarna (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brommapojkarna

WDDLLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
10/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
02/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
26/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
17/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
12/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
06/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
31/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	5	1	D
22/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	8	2	W

Elfsborg

DDLLLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
23/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
14/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
12/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
05/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
29/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
25/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brommapojkarna vs Elfsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Elfsborg win (42%). Probabilities: Brommapojkarna 30%, draw 27%, Elfsborg 42%.

How many goals are expected in Brommapojkarna vs Elfsborg?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Brommapojkarna 1.16 · Elfsborg 1.42), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brommapojkarna vs Elfsborg?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.