Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: Hammarby vs Djurgarden

Team pages: Hammarby · Djurgarden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Hammarby1.54

Djurgarden0.85

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Hammarby Draw Djurgarden

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLDWW

Djurgarden 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Hammarby 4–2–0 Djurgarden (6 last)

Djurgarden1-1Hammarby
Hammarby1-0Djurgarden
Djurgarden3-3Hammarby
Hammarby2-0Djurgarden
Hammarby2-0Djurgarden
Djurgarden0-3Hammarby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby 1584 · Djurgarden 1576

	Hammarby	Draw	Djurgarden
Our model	52%	28%	20%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hammarby: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby	Djurgarden
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.6	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.2 / 7.8	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.78
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.15 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +5’	1.67	3.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +631’	1.78	4.15	3.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby 4–2–0 Djurgarden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	1-1 HT 1-0	Hammarby
15/03/26 Sweden Cup	Hammarby	1-0 HT 0-0	Djurgarden
14/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	3-3 HT 1-2	Hammarby
13/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	2-0 HT 1-0	Djurgarden
21/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	2-0 HT 2-0	Djurgarden
02/06/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	0-3 HT 0-2	Hammarby

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	52	28	51
2	Hammarby	22	13	4	5	49	20	43
3	Djurgarden	22	13	2	7	47	21	41
4	Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	31	22	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	39	30	36
6	Vasteras SK	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37	33	33
8	AIK	22	9	6	7	31	34	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	31	41	32
10	GAIS	22	8	6	8	28	20	30
11	Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	30	36	27
12	Mjällby AIF	22	5	7	10	27	38	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	21	36	19
14	Degerfors	22	5	4	13	19	34	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	25	49	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	16	40	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby	Djurgarden
Degerfors	1-0 W	1-0 W
AIK	2-3 L	1-3 L
GAIS	2-0 W	2-0 W
Kalmar FF	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hammarby

WWDWWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
13/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
06/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
30/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
16/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
09/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	12	2	W
26/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
19/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
12/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Djurgarden

WWLLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
14/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
07/09	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
03/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-0	4	1	W
24/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
16/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	1-3	5	6	L
10/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
03/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	6-0	5	3	W
25/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby vs Djurgarden?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby win (53%). Probabilities: Hammarby 53%, draw 26%, Djurgarden 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby vs Djurgarden?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Hammarby 1.54 · Djurgarden 0.85), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby vs Djurgarden?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.