Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK

Team pages: IFK Goteborg · Vasteras SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

IFK Goteborg2.03

Vasteras SK1.23

1X2

55% 24% 22%

IFK Goteborg Draw Vasteras SK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Goteborg 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDWWWW

Vasteras SK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWLWW

Head-to-head

IFK Goteborg 2–2–0 Vasteras SK (4 last)

Vasteras SK4-5IFK Goteborg
Vasteras SK1-1IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg1-1Vasteras SK
IFK Goteborg2-0Vasteras SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Goteborg 1573 · Vasteras SK 1535

	IFK Goteborg	Draw	Vasteras SK
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	54%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IFK Goteborg: 2-2-0.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Goteborg	Vasteras SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 9.5	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.09 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:33 +8’	1.70	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +399’	1.67	4.09	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Goteborg 2–2–0 Vasteras SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	4-5 HT 2-4	IFK Goteborg
26/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	1-1 HT 0-1	IFK Goteborg
21/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-1 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK
22/02/20 Sweden Cup	IFK Goteborg	2-0 HT 2-0	Vasteras SK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	52	28	51
2	Hammarby	22	13	4	5	49	20	43
3	Djurgarden	22	13	2	7	47	21	41
4	Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	31	22	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	39	30	36
6	Vasteras SK	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37	33	33
8	AIK	22	9	6	7	31	34	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	31	41	32
10	GAIS	22	8	6	8	28	20	30
11	Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	30	36	27
12	Mjällby AIF	22	5	7	10	27	38	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	21	36	19
14	Degerfors	22	5	4	13	19	34	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	25	49	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	16	40	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Goteborg	Vasteras SK
Mjällby AIF	4-1 W	0-0 D
Orgryte IS	1-0 W	2-0 W
Elfsborg	1-1 D	0-3 L
Kalmar FF	3-2 W	0-0 D
Sirius	1-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Goteborg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Goteborg

WLWWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
12/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
07/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
30/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
23/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
16/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-3	14	2	L
09/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	3-2	13	3	W
02/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
26/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-4	4	5	L
17/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	10	3	W

Vasteras SK

DWLWLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
23/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
10/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-6	1	3	L
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Goteborg win (55%). Probabilities: IFK Goteborg 55%, draw 24%, Vasteras SK 22%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK?

The model expects 3.26 goals (IFK Goteborg 2.03 · Vasteras SK 1.23), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.