Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 02/11, 19:00

Prediction: Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF

Team pages: Mjällby AIF · Kalmar FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Mjällby AIF1.18

Kalmar FF1.07

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Mjällby AIF Draw Kalmar FF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mjällby AIF 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDLLW

Kalmar FF 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Mjällby AIF 4–1–1 Kalmar FF (6 last)

Kalmar FF2-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF2-0Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF0-3Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF3-2Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF0-2Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF1-1Kalmar FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjällby AIF 1463 · Kalmar FF 1417

	Mjällby AIF	Draw	Kalmar FF
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mjällby AIF (rating 1463 vs 1417).
H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjällby AIF	Kalmar FF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2	0.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.42
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.41
2	2.75 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.86 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:21 +2’	2.35	3.30	2.75
16:24 +3’	2.20▼	3.30	2.90▲
03:47 +4’	2.38▲	3.30	2.90
14:57 +7’	2.40▲	3.30	2.80▼
12:36 +11’	2.38▼	3.40▲	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +23’	2.55	3.43	2.64
21:46	2.40▼	3.38▼	2.92▲
08:13 +12’	2.46▲	3.36▼	2.85▼
22:29 +32’	2.38▼	3.40▲	2.92▲
23:03 +2’	2.41▲	3.39▼	2.88▼
02:12 +8’	2.42▲	3.40▲	2.87▼
07:00 +22’	2.42	3.41▲	2.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjällby AIF 4–1–1 Kalmar FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
21/02/26 Sweden Cup	Mjällby AIF	2-0 HT 1-0	Kalmar FF
20/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-3 HT 0-2	Mjällby AIF
29/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	3-2 HT 2-2	Kalmar FF
03/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-2 HT 0-2	Mjällby AIF
03/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-1 HT 1-1	Kalmar FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	26	17	4	5	56	34	55
2	Hammarby	26	16	4	6	54	21	52
3	Djurgarden	26	15	4	7	53	24	49
4	BK Hacken	26	12	10	4	47	30	46
5	Elfsborg	26	11	10	5	39	26	43
6	Vasteras SK	26	12	5	9	39	38	41
7	Malmo FF	26	12	4	10	41	34	40
8	AIK	26	10	8	8	42	45	38
9	IFK Goteborg	26	10	8	8	36	45	38
10	GAIS	26	9	7	10	32	26	34
11	Brommapojkarna	26	9	7	10	39	43	34
12	Mjällby AIF	26	6	8	12	30	43	26
13	Kalmar FF	26	6	4	16	23	42	22
14	Degerfors	26	5	5	16	21	44	20
15	Orgryte IS	26	4	7	15	32	58	19
16	Halmstad	26	4	5	17	18	49	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjällby AIF	Kalmar FF
Hammarby	0-2 L	0-4 L
Vasteras SK	0-1 L	0-0 D
Degerfors	1-1 D	2-1 W
GAIS	0-3 L	0-1 L
BK Hacken	1-1 D	0-5 L
Djurgarden	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Kalmar FF (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mjällby AIF

LLLDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
25/10	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
18/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
07/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
03/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	4	L
31/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	1	1	L

Kalmar FF

LDLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
24/10	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
19/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/10	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
20/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-5	5	1	L
13/09	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
07/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mjällby AIF win (38%). Probabilities: Mjällby AIF 38%, draw 30%, Kalmar FF 32%.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Mjällby AIF 1.18 · Kalmar FF 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.