Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 01/11, 16:30

Prediction: Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS

Team pages: Elfsborg · Orgryte IS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Elfsborg2.26

Orgryte IS0.89

1X2

67% 20% 13%

Elfsborg Draw Orgryte IS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Elfsborg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWDDD

Orgryte IS 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Elfsborg 2–1–1 Orgryte IS (4 last)

Orgryte IS2-2Elfsborg
Elfsborg3-1Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS3-2Elfsborg
Elfsborg1-0Orgryte IS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elfsborg 1539 · Orgryte IS 1444

	Elfsborg	Draw	Orgryte IS
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	68%	20%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (rating 1539 vs 1444).
H2H favours Elfsborg: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elfsborg	Orgryte IS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.5	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.29 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 7.56

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.8% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:16 +4’	1.36	4.75	7.50
03:36 +4’	1.36	4.75	8.00▲
22:08 +1’	1.40▲	4.75	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +9’	1.35	5.20	7.18
20:59 +34’	1.36▲	5.28▲	7.35▲
01:05 +33’	1.35▼	5.33▲	7.47▲
10:44 +2’	1.36▲	5.24▼	7.41▼
13:35 +47’	1.36▲	5.20▼	7.37▼
19:03 +17’	1.37▲	5.29▲	7.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg 2–1–1 Orgryte IS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Orgryte IS	2-2 HT 0-1	Elfsborg
16/02/25 Sweden Cup	Elfsborg	3-1 HT 2-0	Orgryte IS
24/02/24 Sweden Cup	Orgryte IS	3-2 HT 1-2	Elfsborg
10/02/18 Europe Friendlies	Elfsborg	1-0 HT 0-0	Orgryte IS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	26	17	4	5	56	34	55
2	Hammarby	26	16	4	6	54	21	52
3	Djurgarden	26	15	4	7	53	24	49
4	BK Hacken	26	12	10	4	47	30	46
5	Elfsborg	26	11	10	5	39	26	43
6	Vasteras SK	26	12	5	9	39	38	41
7	Malmo FF	26	12	4	10	41	34	40
8	AIK	26	10	8	8	42	45	38
9	IFK Goteborg	26	10	8	8	36	45	38
10	GAIS	26	9	7	10	32	26	34
11	Brommapojkarna	26	9	7	10	39	43	34
12	Mjällby AIF	26	6	8	12	30	43	26
13	Kalmar FF	26	6	4	16	23	42	22
14	Degerfors	26	5	5	16	21	44	20
15	Orgryte IS	26	4	7	15	32	58	19
16	Halmstad	26	4	5	17	18	49	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elfsborg	Orgryte IS
Malmo FF	0-0 D	1-4 L
Sirius	2-2 D	1-2 L
Halmstad	4-0 W	1-1 D
Djurgarden	2-1 W	2-2 D
Brommapojkarna	1-2 L	1-3 L
IFK Goteborg	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elfsborg

WDWLWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
23/10	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
18/10	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
12/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
20/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
13/09	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
06/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
23/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
14/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	4	W

Orgryte IS

LDLDLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
24/10	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	4	1	D
18/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	4-2	3	3	W
11/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
19/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
13/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
06/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elfsborg win (67%). Probabilities: Elfsborg 67%, draw 20%, Orgryte IS 13%.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Elfsborg 2.26 · Orgryte IS 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.