Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 31/08, 19:00

Prediction: Sirius vs Malmo FF

Team pages: Sirius · Malmo FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Sirius2.46

Malmo FF1.66

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Sirius Draw Malmo FF

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Sirius 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWL

Malmo FF 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Sirius 3–1–2 Malmo FF (6 last)

Malmo FF2-3Sirius
Sirius5-1Malmo FF
Malmo FF1-1Sirius
Malmo FF0-1Sirius
Sirius3-4Malmo FF
Sirius1-3Malmo FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sirius 1596 · Malmo FF 1475

	Sirius	Draw	Malmo FF
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	53%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1596 vs 1475).
H2H favours Sirius: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sirius	Malmo FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.9	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 07:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.90 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.12 ★
2	3.90 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	1.73	3.90	3.90
02:39 +5’	1.80▲	3.75▼	3.70▼
04:45 +8’	1.80	3.80▲	4.00▲
07:34 +2’	1.90▲	3.70▼	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	1.82	4.17	3.71
01:26	1.80▼	4.23▲	3.71
16:37 +1’	1.84▲	4.19▼	3.59▼
21:09 +4’	1.87▲	4.15▼	3.53▼
07:36	1.88▲	4.12▼	3.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 3–1–2 Malmo FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-3 HT 0-1	Sirius
05/10/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	5-1 HT 2-1	Malmo FF
18/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-1 HT 0-1	Sirius
27/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	0-1 HT 0-0	Sirius
19/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-4 HT 2-0	Malmo FF
28/08/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	1-3 HT 1-2	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	18	13	3	2	47	26	42
2	Hammarby	18	11	3	4	42	15	36
3	BK Hacken	18	8	7	3	32	26	31
4	Djurgarden	17	9	2	6	37	19	29
5	Elfsborg	18	7	7	4	25	19	28
6	AIK	17	8	4	5	25	25	28
7	Malmo FF	18	8	2	8	32	30	26
8	Vasteras SK	18	7	5	6	25	32	26
9	Brommapojkarna	18	6	6	6	27	27	24
10	GAIS	18	6	5	7	21	18	23
11	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
12	IFK Goteborg	18	5	5	8	23	39	20
13	Kalmar FF	18	5	4	9	21	28	19
14	Degerfors	18	4	4	10	17	29	16
15	Orgryte IS	18	3	5	10	22	41	14
16	Halmstad	18	1	5	12	12	35	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sirius	Malmo FF
BK Hacken	0-3 L	2-3 L
AIK	3-0 W	1-0 W
GAIS	2-1 W	3-1 W
Djurgarden	3-2 W	0-3 L
Vasteras SK	4-1 W	2-3 L
Hammarby	2-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sirius

WWWDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
30/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
18/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
11/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/05	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	3-2	6	4	W
27/04	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-2	11	1	D
23/04	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
18/04	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
13/04	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	3	2	W

Malmo FF

WWLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	5-2	4	1	W
24/05	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
17/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
10/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-3	2-3	5	4	L
03/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
27/04	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
23/04	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
17/04	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
12/04	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sirius vs Malmo FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sirius win (54%). Probabilities: Sirius 54%, draw 22%, Malmo FF 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Malmo FF?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Sirius 2.46 · Malmo FF 1.66), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.