Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 12/10, 19:00

Prediction: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

Team pages: Malmo FF · Kalmar FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Malmo FF1.7

Kalmar FF0.99

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Malmo FF Draw Kalmar FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWDWL

Kalmar FF 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Malmo FF 2–3–1 Kalmar FF (6 last)

Kalmar FF2-2Malmo FF
Malmo FF1-1Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF2-2Malmo FF
Malmo FF5-0Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF1-0Malmo FF
Malmo FF1-0Kalmar FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF 1516 · Kalmar FF 1457

	Malmo FF	Draw	Kalmar FF
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (rating 1516 vs 1457).
H2H favours Malmo FF: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.76
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.04 ★
2	4.20 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:10 +4’	1.70	3.75	4.20
15:10 +7’	1.73▲	3.75	4.10▼
07:21 +3’	1.75▲	3.75	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +412’	1.78	3.96	4.05
19:00 +117’	1.76▼	4.00▲	4.11▲
12:05 +52’	1.76	4.04▲	4.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF 2–3–1 Kalmar FF

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-2 HT 2-1	Malmo FF
20/03/26 Club Friendly List	Malmo FF	1-1 HT 1-0	Kalmar FF
24/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-2 HT 0-1	Malmo FF
24/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	5-0 HT 4-0	Kalmar FF
08/10/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	1-0 HT 0-0	Malmo FF
01/04/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-0 HT 0-0	Kalmar FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Hammarby	22	13	4	5	49	20	43
3	Djurgarden	22	13	2	7	47	21	41
4	Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	31	22	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	39	30	36
6	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	32	41	35
8	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37	33	33
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36	40	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	36	41	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	21	36	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	25	49	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	16	40	14

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF	Kalmar FF
Vasteras SK	0-2 L	0-0 D
Djurgarden	0-3 L	0-1 L
Elfsborg	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kalmar FF (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF

DLWLWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
13/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
16/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
02/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-2	5	3	D

Kalmar FF

DWDLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-5	5	1	L
13/09	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
07/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
09/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
01/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF win (53%). Probabilities: Malmo FF 53%, draw 26%, Kalmar FF 21%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Malmo FF 1.7 · Kalmar FF 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.