Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 11/10, 16:30

Prediction: BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS

Team pages: BK Hacken · Orgryte IS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

BK Hacken2.31

Orgryte IS0.86

1X2

70% 18% 12%

BK Hacken Draw Orgryte IS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

BK Hacken 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWLDDW

Orgryte IS 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDLDLL

Head-to-head

BK Hacken 0–1–1 Orgryte IS (2 last)

Orgryte IS4-3BK Hacken
Orgryte IS2-2BK Hacken

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BK Hacken 1550 · Orgryte IS 1451

	BK Hacken	Draw	Orgryte IS
Our model	69%	19%	12%
Market	70%	17%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BK Hacken (rating 1550 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BK Hacken	Orgryte IS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.32
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 8.57 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:54 +5’	1.30	5.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +505’	1.32	5.22	8.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BK Hacken 0–1–1 Orgryte IS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Orgryte IS	4-3 HT 1-2	BK Hacken
20/06/22 Club Friendly List	Orgryte IS	2-2 HT 2-1	BK Hacken

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	52	28	51
2	Hammarby	22	13	4	5	49	20	43
3	Djurgarden	22	13	2	7	47	21	41
4	Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	31	22	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	39	30	36
6	Vasteras SK	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37	33	33
8	AIK	22	9	6	7	31	34	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	31	41	32
10	GAIS	22	8	6	8	28	20	30
11	Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	30	36	27
12	Mjällby AIF	22	5	7	10	27	38	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	21	36	19
14	Degerfors	22	5	4	13	19	34	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	25	49	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	16	40	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BK Hacken	Orgryte IS
Vasteras SK	1-3 L	0-2 L
Sirius	3-0 W	1-2 L
Halmstad	1-0 W	1-1 D
Hammarby	0-3 L	1-1 D
AIK	0-0 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: BK Hacken (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BK Hacken

WDDLWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	5-0	4	1	W
11/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
05/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
29/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
21/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
17/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	11	5	W
09/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
01/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
27/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
19/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	3	2	W

Orgryte IS

DLWLLDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
13/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
06/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
08/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-4	3	3	L
02/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
24/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
20/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BK Hacken win (70%). Probabilities: BK Hacken 70%, draw 18%, Orgryte IS 12%.

How many goals are expected in BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?

The model expects 3.17 goals (BK Hacken 2.31 · Orgryte IS 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.