Prediction: IF Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn
Expected goals: 3.12 (IF Gnistan 2.23 · IFK Mariehamn 0.89). The model gives 67% home, 20% draw, 13% away. Under 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 2-0.
On recent form, IF Gnistan is 5-3-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and IFK Mariehamn 1-1-8 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 5 wins for IF Gnistan and 0 for IFK Mariehamn, with 1 draw.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1547 vs 1400).
- H2H favours IF Gnistan: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IF Gnistan | IFK Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 1.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan 5–1–0 IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 0-3 HT 0-2 | IF Gnistan |
| 30/01/26 Finland Liigacup | IF Gnistan | 2-2 HT 0-1 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 09/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 2-5 HT 0-2 | IF Gnistan |
| 03/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 2-0 HT 2-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 08/02/25 Finland Liigacup | IF Gnistan | 4-0 HT 3-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 15/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 2-1 HT 1-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | AC Oulu | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | VPS Vaasa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | HJK Helsinki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
| 7 | TPS | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
| 8 | FC Lahti | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 9 | FC Ilves | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 16 |
| 10 | SJK | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 14 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 11 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IF Gnistan | IFK Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lahti | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| VPS Vaasa | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| FF Jaro | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| FC Inter | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IF Gnistan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Lahti Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | Puiu Finland Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a IF Gnistan win (67%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan 67%, draw 20%, IFK Mariehamn 13%.
How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model expects 3.12 goals (IF Gnistan 2.23 · IFK Mariehamn 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in IF Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.