Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 20/07, 18:00

Prediction: IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

IFK Mariehamn1.13

FC Lahti1.5

1X2

27% 28% 45%

IFK Mariehamn Draw FC Lahti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Mariehamn 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLL

FC Lahti 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLDDWW

Head-to-head

IFK Mariehamn 1–2–3 FC Lahti (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lahti (rating 1400 vs 1511).
H2H favours FC Lahti: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Mariehamn	FC Lahti
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.5	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn 1–2–3 FC Lahti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Finland Cup	IFK Mariehamn	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
10/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	1-1 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
05/03/26 Finland Liigacup	IFK Mariehamn	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Lahti
19/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	2-1 HT 2-0	IFK Mariehamn
18/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
12/05/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	3-0 HT 2-0	IFK Mariehamn

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	15	8	6	1	27	15	30
2	FC Inter	15	8	6	1	23	12	30
3	VPS Vaasa	15	7	6	2	22	11	27
4	AC Oulu	15	8	2	5	20	18	26
5	HJK Helsinki	15	6	4	5	25	19	22
6	IF Gnistan	15	6	4	5	23	20	22
7	TPS	15	6	4	5	19	16	22
8	FC Lahti	15	5	4	6	18	15	19
9	FC Ilves	15	4	4	7	25	29	16
10	SJK	15	3	5	7	18	23	14
11	FF Jaro	15	2	5	8	15	32	11
12	IFK Mariehamn	15	0	4	11	8	33	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Mariehamn	FC Lahti
IF Gnistan	2-4 L	1-0 W
HJK Helsinki	0-4 L	2-0 W
AC Oulu	1-2 L	1-1 D
KuPS Kuopio	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lahti (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IFK Mariehamn

DLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
04/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
13/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	10	4	L
30/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
26/05	FC Lahti Finland Cup	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
23/05	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/05	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D

FC Lahti

LWWLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
04/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
13/06	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
10/06	FC Ilves Finland Cup	2-4	2-5	3	9	L
30/05	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
26/05	IFK Mariehamn Finland Cup	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/05	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Lahti win (45%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn 27%, draw 28%, FC Lahti 45%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti?

The model expects 2.64 goals (IFK Mariehamn 1.13 · FC Lahti 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.