Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 01/08, 14:00
Prediction: TPS vs IFK Mariehamn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
TPS1.88
IFK Mariehamn0.86
1X2
TPS
Draw
IFK Mariehamn
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
TPS
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
IFK Mariehamn
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
TPS
1–4–1
IFK Mariehamn
(6 last)
- IFK Mariehamn1-1TPS
- IFK Mariehamn1-1TPS
- IFK Mariehamn2-2TPS
- IFK Mariehamn1-3TPS
- TPS1-1IFK Mariehamn
- IFK Mariehamn1-0TPS
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPS (rating 1472 vs 1374).
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TPS | IFK Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.4 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · TPS 1–4–1 IFK Mariehamn
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 1-1 HT 1-0 | TPS |
| 11/02/26 Finland Liigacup | IFK Mariehamn | 1-1 HT 0-0 | TPS |
| 28/05/25 Finland Cup | IFK Mariehamn | 2-2 HT 2-0 | TPS |
| 22/03/24 Club Friendly List | IFK Mariehamn | 1-3 HT 1-3 | TPS |
| 14/09/20 Finland Veikkausliiga | TPS | 1-1 HT 0-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 16/08/20 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 1-0 HT 1-0 | TPS |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 16 | 36 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | VPS Vaasa | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 5 | HJK Helsinki | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 25 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | FC Lahti | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | TPS | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ilves | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 10 | FF Jaro | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 33 | 15 |
| 11 | SJK | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 14 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 17 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | TPS | IFK Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Lahti | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| VPS Vaasa | 1-0 W | 0-4 L |
| FC Inter | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: TPS (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TPS
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | FC Ilves Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
IFK Mariehamn
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Lahti Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in TPS vs IFK Mariehamn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a TPS win (60%). Probabilities: TPS 60%, draw 24%, IFK Mariehamn 16%.
How many goals are expected in TPS vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model expects 2.74 goals (TPS 1.88 · IFK Mariehamn 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in TPS vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.