Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn

Team pages: FC Ilves · IFK Mariehamn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

FC Ilves2.58

IFK Mariehamn0.98

1X2

71% 18% 11%

FC Ilves Draw IFK Mariehamn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ilves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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IFK Mariehamn 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Ilves 4–1–1 IFK Mariehamn (6 last)

IFK Mariehamn2-2FC Ilves
FC Ilves2-1IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn3-2FC Ilves
FC Ilves2-0IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn0-1FC Ilves
FC Ilves2-1IFK Mariehamn

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ilves (rating 1557 vs 1372).
H2H favours FC Ilves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ilves	IFK Mariehamn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	0.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.2	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.87

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.29 → 1.29	Pinn 1.29
X	5.81 → 5.81	Pinn 5.81
2	8.04 → 8.04	Pinn 8.04

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +2’	1.29	5.81	8.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ilves 4–1–1 IFK Mariehamn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Ilves
31/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-1 HT 0-0	IFK Mariehamn
27/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	3-2 HT 2-0	FC Ilves
11/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-0 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
28/04/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Ilves
27/09/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-1 HT 1-1	IFK Mariehamn

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	18	11	6	1	33	16	39
2	FC Inter	17	8	7	2	24	14	31
3	HJK Helsinki	17	8	4	5	28	20	28
4	IF Gnistan	18	8	4	6	27	22	28
5	VPS Vaasa	17	7	6	4	24	16	27
6	AC Oulu	17	8	3	6	21	21	27
7	FC Lahti	18	7	4	7	22	16	25
8	TPS	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	FC Ilves	17	6	4	7	29	30	22
10	FF Jaro	18	3	6	9	17	35	15
11	SJK	17	3	5	9	19	27	14
12	IFK Mariehamn	18	0	5	13	9	39	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ilves	IFK Mariehamn
FC Lahti	1-0 W	0-2 L
TPS	3-1 W	0-3 L
HJK Helsinki	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ilves (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Ilves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Stjarnan UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	10	6	W
26/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
23/07	Stjarnan UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
20/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	8	W
16/07	FC 03 Differdange UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	3-1	0	6	W
08/07	FC 03 Differdange UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
04/07	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
01/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Cup	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/06	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
23/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-4	3-4	4	2	L

IFK Mariehamn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
11/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
04/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
13/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	10	4	L
30/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ilves win (71%). Probabilities: FC Ilves 71%, draw 18%, IFK Mariehamn 11%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn?

The model expects 3.55 goals (FC Ilves 2.58 · IFK Mariehamn 0.98), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.