Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

Team pages: AC Oulu · HJK Helsinki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

AC Oulu1.26

HJK Helsinki1.55

1X2

30% 27% 43%

AC Oulu Draw HJK Helsinki

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AC Oulu 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDLLDW

HJK Helsinki 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

AC Oulu 2–4 HJK Helsinki (6 last)

HJK Helsinki0-1AC Oulu
AC Oulu2-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki1-0AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki3-1AC Oulu
AC Oulu0-4HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki3-0AC Oulu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Oulu 1506 · HJK Helsinki 1580

	AC Oulu	Draw	HJK Helsinki
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	30%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1506 vs 1580).
H2H favours HJK Helsinki: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Oulu	HJK Helsinki
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.3	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +2’	3.00	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Oulu 2–0–4 HJK Helsinki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	0-1 HT 0-1	AC Oulu
14/03/26 Finland Liigacup	AC Oulu	2-1 HT 0-0	HJK Helsinki
21/08/25 Finland Cup	HJK Helsinki	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Oulu
20/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	3-1 HT 2-0	AC Oulu
14/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	AC Oulu	0-4 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki
27/07/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	3-0 HT 1-0	AC Oulu

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	18	11	6	1	33	16	39
2	FC Inter	18	9	7	2	25	14	34
3	AC Oulu	18	9	3	6	22	21	30
4	HJK Helsinki	17	8	4	5	28	20	28
5	IF Gnistan	18	8	4	6	27	22	28
6	VPS Vaasa	18	7	6	5	24	17	27
7	FC Lahti	18	7	4	7	22	16	25
8	TPS	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	FC Ilves	18	6	4	8	29	31	22
10	FF Jaro	18	3	6	9	17	35	15
11	SJK	17	3	5	9	19	27	14
12	IFK Mariehamn	18	0	5	13	9	39	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Oulu	HJK Helsinki
FC Ilves	1-0 W	2-1 W
IFK Mariehamn	1-1 D	4-0 W
TPS	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Lahti	1-1 D	0-2 L
VPS Vaasa	1-5 L	2-1 W
FC Inter	0-0 D	3-3 D
FF Jaro	2-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HJK Helsinki (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AC Oulu

WWDWLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
11/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	0-3	9	2	L
27/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
23/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-3	1-5	3	2	L
18/06	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
13/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
31/05	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
23/05	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W

HJK Helsinki

WDWLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Coleraine UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
23/07	Coleraine UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
18/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
01/07	FC Ilves Finland Cup	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
23/06	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W
17/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	3-3	10	2	D
13/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	5-2	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HJK Helsinki win (43%). Probabilities: AC Oulu 30%, draw 27%, HJK Helsinki 43%.

How many goals are expected in AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki?

The model expects 2.8 goals (AC Oulu 1.26 · HJK Helsinki 1.55), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.