Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: SJK vs IF Gnistan

Team pages: SJK · IF Gnistan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

SJK1.78

IF Gnistan1.63

1X2

40% 25% 34%

SJK Draw IF Gnistan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SJK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDWLLL

IF Gnistan 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLWWWL

Head-to-head

SJK 4–1–1 IF Gnistan (6 last)

IF Gnistan3-2SJK
IF Gnistan1-3SJK
SJK3-0IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan3-4SJK
SJK3-1IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan2-2SJK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK 1476 · IF Gnistan 1518

	SJK	Draw	IF Gnistan
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1476 vs 1518).
H2H favours SJK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK	IF Gnistan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +3’	2.30	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK 4–1–1 IF Gnistan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	3-2 HT 1-1	SJK
14/03/26 Europe Friendlies	IF Gnistan	1-3 HT 1-2	SJK
09/11/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	3-0 HT 1-0	IF Gnistan
19/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	3-4 HT 1-1	SJK
20/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	3-1 HT 0-1	IF Gnistan
16/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-2 HT 1-1	SJK

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	18	11	6	1	33	16	39
2	FC Inter	18	9	7	2	25	14	34
3	AC Oulu	18	9	3	6	22	21	30
4	HJK Helsinki	17	8	4	5	28	20	28
5	IF Gnistan	18	8	4	6	27	22	28
6	VPS Vaasa	18	7	6	5	24	17	27
7	FC Lahti	18	7	4	7	22	16	25
8	TPS	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	FC Ilves	18	6	4	8	29	31	22
10	FF Jaro	18	3	6	9	17	35	15
11	SJK	17	3	5	9	19	27	14
12	IFK Mariehamn	18	0	5	13	9	39	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK	IF Gnistan
FF Jaro	1-2 L	1-1 D
KuPS Kuopio	0-2 L	0-1 L
VPS Vaasa	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Inter	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Lahti	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SJK

LLWLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
18/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
10/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
04/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
27/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	0	8	D
17/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
13/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
10/06	FC Inter Finland Cup	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
30/05	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	2-3	9	5	L

IF Gnistan

WWWDDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
26/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
11/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-2	8	1	W
04/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
23/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/06	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
30/05	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SJK vs IF Gnistan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SJK win (40%). Probabilities: SJK 40%, draw 25%, IF Gnistan 34%.

How many goals are expected in SJK vs IF Gnistan?

The model expects 3.41 goals (SJK 1.78 · IF Gnistan 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SJK vs IF Gnistan?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.