Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 03/08, 18:00

Prediction: SJK vs HJK Helsinki

Team pages: SJK · HJK Helsinki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

SJK1.65

HJK Helsinki2.03

1X2

30% 24% 45%

SJK Draw HJK Helsinki

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SJK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDWLLL

HJK Helsinki 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

SJK 2–1–3 HJK Helsinki (6 last)

HJK Helsinki3-0SJK
HJK Helsinki1-0SJK
HJK Helsinki3-4SJK
SJK3-3HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki4-2SJK
SJK1-0HJK Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK 1456 · HJK Helsinki 1577

	SJK	Draw	HJK Helsinki
Our model	31%	23%	46%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1456 vs 1577).
H2H favours HJK Helsinki: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK	HJK Helsinki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	2.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.84 ★
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +1’	3.10	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	3.10	3.84	2.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK 2–1–3 HJK Helsinki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	3-0 HT 1-0	SJK
21/03/26 Europe Friendlies	HJK Helsinki	1-0 HT 0-0	SJK
22/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	3-4 HT 1-2	SJK
13/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	3-3 HT 2-2	HJK Helsinki
20/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	4-2 HT 3-0	SJK
11/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	1-0 HT 0-0	HJK Helsinki

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	17	10	6	1	32	16	36
2	FC Inter	17	8	7	2	24	14	31
3	HJK Helsinki	17	8	4	5	28	20	28
4	IF Gnistan	17	8	4	5	27	21	28
5	VPS Vaasa	17	7	6	4	24	16	27
6	AC Oulu	17	8	3	6	21	21	27
7	FC Lahti	17	6	4	7	20	16	22
8	TPS	17	6	4	7	20	20	22
9	FC Ilves	17	6	4	7	29	30	22
10	FF Jaro	17	3	6	8	17	33	15
11	SJK	17	3	5	9	19	27	14
12	IFK Mariehamn	17	0	5	12	9	36	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK	HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro	1-2 L	5-2 W
KuPS Kuopio	0-2 L	0-4 L
VPS Vaasa	0-1 L	2-1 W
TPS	3-1 W	1-0 W
FC Ilves	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Inter	1-1 D	3-3 D
FC Lahti	3-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SJK

LLWLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
18/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
10/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
04/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
27/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	0	8	D
17/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
13/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
10/06	FC Inter Finland Cup	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
30/05	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	2-3	9	5	L

HJK Helsinki

WWDWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
23/07	Coleraine UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
18/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
01/07	FC Ilves Finland Cup	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
23/06	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W
17/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	3-3	10	2	D
13/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	5-2	3	5	W
09/06	FC Honka Finland Cup	4-1	7-1	12	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SJK vs HJK Helsinki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HJK Helsinki win (45%). Probabilities: SJK 30%, draw 24%, HJK Helsinki 45%.

How many goals are expected in SJK vs HJK Helsinki?

The model expects 3.68 goals (SJK 1.65 · HJK Helsinki 2.03), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SJK vs HJK Helsinki?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.