Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: IFK Mariehamn vs SJK

Team pages: IFK Mariehamn · SJK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

IFK Mariehamn1.39

SJK1.85

1X2

28% 25% 47%

IFK Mariehamn Draw SJK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Mariehamn 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

SJK 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLLLWD

Head-to-head

IFK Mariehamn 1–5 SJK (6 last)

SJK3-0IFK Mariehamn
SJK4-1IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn1-2SJK
IFK Mariehamn0-4SJK
SJK0-2IFK Mariehamn
SJK3-2IFK Mariehamn

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SJK (rating 1369 vs 1493).
H2H favours SJK: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Mariehamn	SJK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.6	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.84

Under 3.251.97

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.61 → 5.61	Pinn 5.61
X	4.86 → 4.86	Pinn 4.86
2	1.46 → 1.46	Pinn 1.46

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +7’	5.61	4.86	1.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn 1–0–5 SJK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	3-0 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
28/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	4-1 HT 3-0	IFK Mariehamn
19/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	1-2 HT 1-0	SJK
21/07/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-4 HT 0-0	SJK
31/05/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	0-2 HT 0-0	IFK Mariehamn
26/08/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	3-2 HT 0-1	IFK Mariehamn

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	18	11	6	1	33	16	39
2	FC Inter	18	9	7	2	25	14	34
3	VPS Vaasa	19	8	6	5	27	18	30
4	AC Oulu	18	9	3	6	22	21	30
5	IF Gnistan	19	8	5	6	29	24	29
6	HJK Helsinki	18	8	4	6	28	23	28
7	FC Lahti	18	7	4	7	22	16	25
8	TPS	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	FC Ilves	18	6	4	8	29	31	22
10	SJK	19	4	6	9	24	29	18
11	FF Jaro	19	3	6	10	18	38	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	18	0	5	13	9	39	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Mariehamn	SJK
TPS	0-3 L	3-1 W
FC Lahti	0-2 L	3-2 W
IF Gnistan	2-4 L	2-2 D
VPS Vaasa	0-4 L	0-1 L
FC Inter	0-2 L	1-1 D
HJK Helsinki	0-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SJK (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Mariehamn

LLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
11/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
04/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
13/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	10	4	L
30/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

SJK

WLDDWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
03/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
24/07	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
18/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
10/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
04/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
27/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	0	8	D
17/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
13/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	3-2	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn vs SJK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SJK win (47%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn 28%, draw 25%, SJK 47%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn vs SJK?

The model expects 3.24 goals (IFK Mariehamn 1.39 · SJK 1.85), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn vs SJK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.