Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 23/08, 14:00

Prediction: HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan

Team pages: HJK Helsinki · IF Gnistan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

HJK Helsinki2.15

IF Gnistan1.19

1X2

58% 23% 19%

HJK Helsinki Draw IF Gnistan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

HJK Helsinki 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWLWW

IF Gnistan 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWLDW

Head-to-head

HJK Helsinki 4–1–1 IF Gnistan (6 last)

IF Gnistan0-3HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki3-0IF Gnistan
HJK Helsinki3-1IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan2-2HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki2-3IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan2-4HJK Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HJK Helsinki 1563 · IF Gnistan 1516

	HJK Helsinki	Draw	IF Gnistan
Our model	58%	22%	19%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1563 vs 1516).
H2H favours HJK Helsinki: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HJK Helsinki	IF Gnistan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.63
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.44 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.89

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:46 +4’	1.57	4.00	4.75
11:23 +1’	1.60▲	4.00	4.50▼
09:54 +6’	1.65▲	3.90▼	4.33▼
15:31 +17’	1.57▼	4.00▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +1’	1.52	4.66	5.45
21:43 +2’	1.53▲	4.62▼	5.37▼
23:34	1.62▲	4.39▼	4.77▼
13:05	1.63▲	4.36▼	4.70▼
16:37	1.64▲	4.34▼	4.64▼
15:08 +1’	1.65▲	4.33▼	4.63▼
21:01	1.65▲	4.29▼	4.60▼
00:35	1.68▲	4.24▼	4.48▼
09:59 +1’	1.72▲	4.16▼	4.27▼
15:46 +2’	1.61▼	4.39▲	4.81▲
11:50 +20’	1.62▲	4.37▼	4.78▼
19:34 +12’	1.63▲	4.44▲	4.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK Helsinki 4–1–1 IF Gnistan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	0-3 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki
10/03/26 Europe Friendlies	HJK Helsinki	3-0 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan
07/02/26 Finland Liigacup	HJK Helsinki	3-1 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan
03/11/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-2 HT 1-2	HJK Helsinki
03/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	2-3 HT 2-1	IF Gnistan
28/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-4 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	20	12	7	1	36	18	43
2	FC Inter	20	10	8	2	28	16	38
3	HJK Helsinki	20	10	4	6	32	23	34
4	IF Gnistan	20	9	5	6	32	26	32
5	VPS Vaasa	20	8	6	6	28	21	30
6	AC Oulu	20	9	3	8	24	25	30
7	FC Lahti	21	8	5	8	25	19	29
8	TPS	20	8	5	7	27	22	29
9	FC Ilves	20	7	4	9	33	34	25
10	SJK	21	4	6	11	25	33	18
11	FF Jaro	20	3	6	11	18	41	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	20	1	5	14	11	41	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HJK Helsinki	IF Gnistan
FF Jaro	3-0 W	1-1 D
AC Oulu	1-0 W	2-0 W
SJK	0-3 L	2-2 D
VPS Vaasa	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Lahti	0-2 L	0-1 L
KuPS Kuopio	0-4 L	0-1 L
IFK Mariehamn	4-0 W	4-2 W
FC Inter	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HJK Helsinki

WDWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-3	16	3	L
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
27/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
23/06	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W
17/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	3-3	10	2	D
13/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	5-2	3	5	W

IF Gnistan

WDDLWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-2	3-2	8	5	W
07/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
01/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
26/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
11/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-2	8	1	W
04/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
23/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK Helsinki win (58%). Probabilities: HJK Helsinki 58%, draw 23%, IF Gnistan 19%.

How many goals are expected in HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan?

The model expects 3.34 goals (HJK Helsinki 2.15 · IF Gnistan 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.