Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Ilves vs VPS Vaasa

Team pages: FC Ilves · VPS Vaasa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

FC Ilves1.77

VPS Vaasa1.27

1X2

48% 26% 26%

FC Ilves Draw VPS Vaasa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ilves 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLLWD

VPS Vaasa 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

FC Ilves 4–2 VPS Vaasa (6 last)

VPS Vaasa3-2FC Ilves
VPS Vaasa1-2FC Ilves
FC Ilves3-2VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-0FC Ilves
FC Ilves1-0VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa0-2FC Ilves

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Ilves: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ilves	VPS Vaasa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:56

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.37 → 2.39▲	Pinn 2.39
X	3.81 → 3.81	Pinn 3.81
2	2.74 → 2.71▼	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:31	2.37	3.81	2.74
20:54 +1’	2.39▲	3.81	2.71▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ilves 4–0–2 VPS Vaasa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	3-2 HT 3-0	FC Ilves
07/02/26 Finland Liigacup	VPS Vaasa	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Ilves
14/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	3-2 HT 1-0	VPS Vaasa
02/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Ilves
15/02/25 Finland Liigacup	FC Ilves	1-0 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa
04/10/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Ilves

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	20	12	7	1	36	18	43
2	FC Inter	20	10	8	2	28	16	38
3	HJK Helsinki	20	10	4	6	32	23	34
4	VPS Vaasa	20	8	6	6	28	21	30
5	AC Oulu	20	9	3	8	24	25	30
6	IF Gnistan	19	8	5	6	29	24	29
7	TPS	20	8	5	7	27	22	29
8	FC Lahti	20	7	5	8	23	18	26
9	FC Ilves	19	7	4	8	31	31	25
10	SJK	20	4	6	10	24	31	18
11	FF Jaro	20	3	6	11	18	41	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	20	1	5	14	11	41	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ilves	VPS Vaasa
IFK Mariehamn	2-0 W	4-0 W
AC Oulu	0-1 L	5-1 W
TPS	3-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: VPS Vaasa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Ilves

DWWLWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
09/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
06/08	HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
02/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/07	Stjarnan UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	10	6	W
26/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
23/07	Stjarnan UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
20/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	8	W
16/07	FC 03 Differdange UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	3-1	0	6	W
08/07	FC 03 Differdange UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

VPS Vaasa

WDLWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
02/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	1-3	4	2	L
18/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
10/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
04/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	4-0	4	0	W
30/06	FC Inter Finland Cup	1-0	2-3	3	2	L
27/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
23/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	3-1	5-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ilves vs VPS Vaasa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ilves win (48%). Probabilities: FC Ilves 48%, draw 26%, VPS Vaasa 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ilves vs VPS Vaasa?

The model expects 3.03 goals (FC Ilves 1.77 · VPS Vaasa 1.27), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ilves vs VPS Vaasa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.