Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 23/08, 14:00

Prediction: KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn

Team pages: KuPS Kuopio · IFK Mariehamn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

KuPS Kuopio2.08

IFK Mariehamn0.94

1X2

63% 22% 15%

KuPS Kuopio Draw IFK Mariehamn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS Kuopio 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDDLW

IFK Mariehamn 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

KuPS Kuopio 3–2–1 IFK Mariehamn (6 last)

IFK Mariehamn1-1KuPS Kuopio
IFK Mariehamn1-0KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio4-1IFK Mariehamn
KuPS Kuopio3-0IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn1-3KuPS Kuopio
IFK Mariehamn2-2KuPS Kuopio

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS Kuopio (rating 1519 vs 1402).
H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS Kuopio	IFK Mariehamn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Pinn 1.25
X	6.67 → 6.67	Pinn 6.67
2	9.40 → 9.40	Pinn 9.40

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +1’	1.25	6.67	9.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS Kuopio 3–2–1 IFK Mariehamn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	1-1 HT 1-1	KuPS Kuopio
18/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	1-0 HT 0-0	KuPS Kuopio
23/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	4-1 HT 2-0	IFK Mariehamn
25/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-0 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
16/06/24 Finland Cup	IFK Mariehamn	1-3 HT 0-2	KuPS Kuopio
13/04/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	2-2 HT 1-1	KuPS Kuopio

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	20	12	7	1	36	18	43
2	FC Inter	20	10	8	2	28	16	38
3	HJK Helsinki	20	10	4	6	32	23	34
4	VPS Vaasa	20	8	6	6	28	21	30
5	AC Oulu	20	9	3	8	24	25	30
6	IF Gnistan	19	8	5	6	29	24	29
7	TPS	20	8	5	7	27	22	29
8	FC Lahti	20	7	5	8	23	18	26
9	FC Ilves	19	7	4	8	31	31	25
10	SJK	20	4	6	10	24	31	18
11	FF Jaro	20	3	6	11	18	41	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	20	1	5	14	11	41	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS Kuopio	IFK Mariehamn
FC Lahti	2-1 W	0-2 L
TPS	1-1 D	0-3 L
IF Gnistan	1-0 W	2-4 L
VPS Vaasa	3-1 W	0-4 L
SJK	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS Kuopio (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KuPS Kuopio

LWLWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
13/08	CS U Craiova UEFA Europa League Qualifying	1-1	1-2	0	5	L
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
06/08	CS U Craiova UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
01/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/07	Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
25/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/07	Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
18/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
14/07	Vardar Skopje UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-2	12	8	L

IFK Mariehamn

LLLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
01/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
11/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
04/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS Kuopio win (63%). Probabilities: KuPS Kuopio 63%, draw 22%, IFK Mariehamn 15%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

The model expects 3.02 goals (KuPS Kuopio 2.08 · IFK Mariehamn 0.94), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.