Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 16/08, 15:00

Prediction: HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro

Team pages: HJK Helsinki · FF Jaro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

HJK Helsinki2.41

FF Jaro1.25

1X2

62% 20% 18%

HJK Helsinki Draw FF Jaro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

HJK Helsinki 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWLDW

FF Jaro 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDWLL

Head-to-head

HJK Helsinki 4–1–1 FF Jaro (6 last)

FF Jaro2-5HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki2-3FF Jaro
FF Jaro0-3HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro1-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki4-0FF Jaro
HJK Helsinki3-0FF Jaro

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1565 vs 1446).
H2H favours HJK Helsinki: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HJK Helsinki	FF Jaro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.83

Under 3.251.99

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:44

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.28
X	5.94 → 5.94	Pinn 5.94
2	8.69 → 8.69	Pinn 8.69

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	1.28	5.94	8.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK Helsinki 4–1–1 FF Jaro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	2-5 HT 2-1	HJK Helsinki
02/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	2-3 HT 1-0	FF Jaro
11/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	0-3 HT 0-0	HJK Helsinki
13/09/15 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	1-1 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki
22/06/15 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	4-0 HT 0-0	FF Jaro
03/05/15 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	3-0 HT 0-0	FF Jaro

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	19	11	7	1	34	17	40
2	FC Inter	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
3	HJK Helsinki	19	9	4	6	29	23	31
4	VPS Vaasa	19	8	6	5	27	18	30
5	AC Oulu	19	9	3	7	22	22	30
6	IF Gnistan	19	8	5	6	29	24	29
7	FC Lahti	19	7	5	7	22	16	26
8	TPS	19	7	5	7	24	21	26
9	FC Ilves	19	7	4	8	31	31	25
10	SJK	19	4	6	9	24	29	18
11	FF Jaro	19	3	6	10	18	38	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	19	0	5	14	9	41	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HJK Helsinki	FF Jaro
AC Oulu	1-0 W	1-2 L
SJK	0-3 L	2-1 W
TPS	1-0 W	2-3 L
VPS Vaasa	2-1 W	1-3 L
FC Lahti	0-2 L	0-2 L
FC Ilves	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HJK Helsinki (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

HJK Helsinki

LWLWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
06/08	Motherwell UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
03/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-3	16	3	L
30/07	Coleraine UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
23/07	Coleraine UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
18/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
01/07	FC Ilves Finland Cup	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	8	1	L

FF Jaro

LLLDLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
01/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
24/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
04/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	7	3	W
27/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-3	8	3	L
23/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-4	0-5	3	2	L
13/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-5	6	5	L
31/05	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK Helsinki win (62%). Probabilities: HJK Helsinki 62%, draw 20%, FF Jaro 18%.

How many goals are expected in HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro?

The model expects 3.66 goals (HJK Helsinki 2.41 · FF Jaro 1.25), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.