Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 17/08, 17:00
Prediction: IF Gnistan vs FC Ilves
Team pages: IF Gnistan · FC Ilves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
IF Gnistan1.36
FC Ilves1.27
1X2
IF Gnistan
Draw
FC Ilves
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
IF Gnistan
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
FC Ilves
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
IF Gnistan
0–1–5
FC Ilves
(6 last)
- FC Ilves2-0IF Gnistan
- FC Ilves1-0IF Gnistan
- IF Gnistan1-3FC Ilves
- FC Ilves3-2IF Gnistan
- FC Ilves2-2IF Gnistan
- IF Gnistan0-2FC Ilves
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ilves (rating 1507 vs 1548).
- H2H favours FC Ilves: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IF Gnistan | FC Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan 0–1–5 FC Ilves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 2-0 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 24/01/26 Europe Friendlies | FC Ilves | 1-0 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 25/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 1-3 HT 0-1 | FC Ilves |
| 23/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 3-2 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 04/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 2-2 HT 1-1 | IF Gnistan |
| 01/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 0-2 HT 0-0 | FC Ilves |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 34 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 35 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | VPS Vaasa | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 30 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 29 |
| 7 | FC Lahti | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 26 |
| 8 | TPS | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 26 |
| 9 | FC Ilves | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 18 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 38 | 15 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 19 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 41 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IF Gnistan | FC Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| IFK Mariehamn | 4-2 W | 2-0 W |
| FC Lahti | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| FF Jaro | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IF Gnistan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 4-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
FC Ilves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/07 | Stjarnan UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 23/07 | Stjarnan UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 16/07 | FC 03 Differdange UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 08/07 | FC 03 Differdange UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan vs FC Ilves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a IF Gnistan win (38%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan 38%, draw 29%, FC Ilves 34%.
How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan vs FC Ilves?
The model expects 2.64 goals (IF Gnistan 1.36 · FC Ilves 1.27), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in IF Gnistan vs FC Ilves?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.