Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 31/08, 18:00

Prediction: VPS Vaasa vs FC Lahti

Team pages: VPS Vaasa · FC Lahti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

VPS Vaasa1.34

FC Lahti1.09

1X2

42% 28% 30%

VPS Vaasa Draw FC Lahti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

VPS Vaasa 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLWLW

FC Lahti 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLWDLW

Head-to-head

VPS Vaasa 3–3–0 FC Lahti (6 last)

FC Lahti1-1VPS Vaasa
FC Lahti0-0VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa3-0FC Lahti
FC Lahti0-2VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa0-0FC Lahti
FC Lahti0-2VPS Vaasa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPS Vaasa 1502 · FC Lahti 1535

	VPS Vaasa	Draw	FC Lahti
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	43%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours VPS Vaasa: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPS Vaasa	FC Lahti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.57
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.31 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +6’	2.15	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +2’	2.14	3.55	3.31
16:50 +2’	2.15▲	3.55	3.29▼
15:14 +1’	2.15	3.53▼	3.30▲
21:09 +3’	2.14▼	3.57▲	3.31▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS Vaasa 3–3–0 FC Lahti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	1-1 HT 1-1	VPS Vaasa
25/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	0-0 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa
03/05/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
18/08/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	0-2 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa
05/04/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
28/09/22 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	0-2 HT 0-2	VPS Vaasa

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	21	12	7	2	38	22	43
2	FC Inter	21	10	9	2	28	16	39
3	IF Gnistan	21	10	5	6	35	28	35
4	HJK Helsinki	21	10	4	7	34	26	34
5	VPS Vaasa	21	9	6	6	29	21	33
6	AC Oulu	21	10	3	8	25	25	33
7	TPS	21	8	6	7	27	22	30
8	FC Lahti	21	8	5	8	25	19	29
9	FC Ilves	21	7	4	10	33	35	25
10	SJK	21	4	6	11	25	33	18
11	FF Jaro	21	3	6	12	18	42	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	21	2	5	14	15	43	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPS Vaasa	FC Lahti
FC Ilves	1-0 W	0-1 L
TPS	1-3 L	0-0 D
FF Jaro	3-1 W	2-0 W
FC Inter	0-1 L	0-0 D
KuPS Kuopio	1-3 L	1-2 L
HJK Helsinki	1-2 L	2-0 W
SJK	1-0 W	2-1 W
IFK Mariehamn	4-0 W	2-0 W
IF Gnistan	1-1 D	1-0 W
AC Oulu	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lahti (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPS Vaasa

WDWWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
02/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	1-3	4	2	L
18/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
10/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
04/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	4-0	4	0	W
27/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
23/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	3-1	5-1	2	2	W

FC Lahti

DDWWWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	5	8	W
16/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
09/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
26/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
20/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
11/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
04/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPS Vaasa vs FC Lahti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VPS Vaasa win (42%). Probabilities: VPS Vaasa 42%, draw 28%, FC Lahti 30%.

How many goals are expected in VPS Vaasa vs FC Lahti?

The model expects 2.42 goals (VPS Vaasa 1.34 · FC Lahti 1.09), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VPS Vaasa vs FC Lahti?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.