Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 31/08, 18:00

Prediction: IFK Mariehamn vs FF Jaro

Team pages: IFK Mariehamn · FF Jaro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

IFK Mariehamn1.66

FF Jaro1.42

1X2

42% 26% 32%

IFK Mariehamn Draw FF Jaro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Mariehamn 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLWW

FF Jaro 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWLLLL

Head-to-head

IFK Mariehamn 2–2–2 FF Jaro (6 last)

FF Jaro3-0IFK Mariehamn
FF Jaro2-3IFK Mariehamn
FF Jaro1-1IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn0-2FF Jaro
FF Jaro0-0IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn4-3FF Jaro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Mariehamn 1439 · FF Jaro 1440

	IFK Mariehamn	Draw	FF Jaro
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Mariehamn	FF Jaro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.30 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.62
2	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.96

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +5’	2.30	3.40	2.70
02:38 +6’	2.15▼	3.40	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	2.41	3.58	2.81
08:17 +1’	2.39▼	3.58	2.85▲
10:19 +1’	2.35▼	3.60▲	2.88▲
12:27 +1’	2.30▼	3.61▲	2.96▲
15:17	2.27▼	3.63▲	2.99▲
09:35	2.30▲	3.61▼	2.96▼
06:24	2.30	3.62▲	2.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn 2–2–2 FF Jaro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	3-0 HT 2-0	IFK Mariehamn
28/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	2-3 HT 1-1	IFK Mariehamn
06/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	1-1 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
05/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-2 HT 0-1	FF Jaro
17/09/15 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	0-0 HT 0-0	IFK Mariehamn
19/07/15 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	4-3 HT 3-1	FF Jaro

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	21	12	7	2	38	22	43
2	FC Inter	21	10	9	2	28	16	39
3	IF Gnistan	21	10	5	6	35	28	35
4	HJK Helsinki	21	10	4	7	34	26	34
5	VPS Vaasa	21	9	6	6	29	21	33
6	AC Oulu	21	10	3	8	25	25	33
7	TPS	21	8	6	7	27	22	30
8	FC Lahti	21	8	5	8	25	19	29
9	FC Ilves	21	7	4	10	33	35	25
10	SJK	21	4	6	11	25	33	18
11	FF Jaro	21	3	6	12	18	42	15
12	IFK Mariehamn	21	2	5	14	15	43	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Mariehamn	FF Jaro
SJK	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Ilves	0-2 L	2-1 W
TPS	0-3 L	2-3 L
AC Oulu	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Lahti	0-2 L	0-2 L
IF Gnistan	2-4 L	1-1 D
VPS Vaasa	0-4 L	1-3 L
FC Inter	0-2 L	0-0 D
HJK Helsinki	0-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FF Jaro (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Mariehamn

LLLLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	3-1	4-2	4	3	W
15/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
01/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
11/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
04/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	4	3	L

FF Jaro

LDLWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
16/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
08/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
01/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
24/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
04/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
27/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-3	8	3	L
23/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-4	0-5	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Mariehamn win (42%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn 42%, draw 26%, FF Jaro 32%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?

The model expects 3.08 goals (IFK Mariehamn 1.66 · FF Jaro 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.