Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 31/08, 18:00
Prediction: IF Gnistan vs TPS
Team pages: IF Gnistan · TPS
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
IF Gnistan1.54
TPS1.08
1X2
IF Gnistan
Draw
TPS
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
IF Gnistan
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
TPS
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
IF Gnistan
3–1–2
TPS
(6 last)
- TPS1-1IF Gnistan
- TPS0-2IF Gnistan
- TPS2-0IF Gnistan
- IF Gnistan2-0TPS
- IF Gnistan0-3TPS
- TPS0-2IF Gnistan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IF Gnistan 1563 · TPS 1485
| IF Gnistan | Draw | TPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1563 vs 1485).
- H2H favours IF Gnistan: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IF Gnistan | TPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.3 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan 3–1–2 TPS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | TPS | 1-1 HT 0-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 14/02/26 Finland Liigacup | TPS | 0-2 HT 0-2 | IF Gnistan |
| 16/03/24 Europe Friendlies | TPS | 2-0 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan |
| 17/09/23 Finland Ykkosliiga | IF Gnistan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | TPS |
| 23/07/23 Finland Ykkosliiga | IF Gnistan | 0-3 HT 0-1 | TPS |
| 13/05/23 Finland Ykkosliiga | TPS | 0-2 HT 0-1 | IF Gnistan |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 43 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 28 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | IF Gnistan | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 35 |
| 4 | HJK Helsinki | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 26 | 34 |
| 5 | VPS Vaasa | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 33 |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | TPS | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | FC Lahti | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 9 | FC Ilves | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 35 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 33 | 18 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 15 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 43 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IF Gnistan | TPS |
|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Ilves | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FF Jaro | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| VPS Vaasa | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| FC Inter | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IF Gnistan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
TPS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 17/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan vs TPS?
According to our model, the most likely result is a IF Gnistan win (48%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan 48%, draw 26%, TPS 26%.
How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan vs TPS?
The model expects 2.61 goals (IF Gnistan 1.54 · TPS 1.08), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in IF Gnistan vs TPS?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.