Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 31/08, 18:00
Prediction: FC Ilves vs HJK Helsinki
Team pages: FC Ilves · HJK Helsinki
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
FC Ilves1.31
HJK Helsinki1.87
1X2
FC Ilves
Draw
HJK Helsinki
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Ilves
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
HJK Helsinki
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Ilves
2–2–2
HJK Helsinki
(6 last)
- HJK Helsinki2-1FC Ilves
- HJK Helsinki2-2FC Ilves
- FC Ilves3-1HJK Helsinki
- HJK Helsinki2-2FC Ilves
- HJK Helsinki5-1FC Ilves
- FC Ilves3-2HJK Helsinki
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Ilves 1484 · HJK Helsinki 1532
| FC Ilves | Draw | HJK Helsinki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 24% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1484 vs 1532).
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ilves | HJK Helsinki | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 2.8 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ilves 2–2–2 HJK Helsinki
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/26 Finland Cup | HJK Helsinki | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Ilves |
| 16/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Ilves |
| 30/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 3-1 HT 1-1 | HJK Helsinki |
| 29/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Ilves |
| 11/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 5-1 HT 0-0 | FC Ilves |
| 05/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 3-2 HT 1-2 | HJK Helsinki |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 43 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 28 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | IF Gnistan | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 35 |
| 4 | HJK Helsinki | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 26 | 34 |
| 5 | VPS Vaasa | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 33 |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | TPS | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | FC Lahti | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 9 | FC Ilves | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 35 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 33 | 18 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 15 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 43 | 11 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ilves | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| VPS Vaasa | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| IF Gnistan | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| IFK Mariehamn | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| AC Oulu | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Lahti | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| TPS | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| FF Jaro | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| SJK | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| KuPS Kuopio | 3-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 5 L | 5 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ilves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
4-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
HJK Helsinki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 03/08 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 3-3 | 10 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Ilves vs HJK Helsinki?
According to our model, the most likely result is an HJK Helsinki win (50%). Probabilities: FC Ilves 26%, draw 24%, HJK Helsinki 50%.
How many goals are expected in FC Ilves vs HJK Helsinki?
The model expects 3.17 goals (FC Ilves 1.31 · HJK Helsinki 1.87), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Ilves vs HJK Helsinki?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.