Football · Norway Division 1 · 18/10, 17:00

Prediction: Kongsvinger vs Sandnes Ulf

Team pages: Kongsvinger · Sandnes Ulf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Kongsvinger2.96

Sandnes Ulf1.33

1X2

70% 16% 14%

Kongsvinger Draw Sandnes Ulf

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Kongsvinger 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Sandnes Ulf 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kongsvinger 6–0 Sandnes Ulf (6 last)

Sandnes Ulf1-6Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger1-0Sandnes Ulf
Sandnes Ulf0-2Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger4-0Sandnes Ulf
Sandnes Ulf1-2Kongsvinger
Sandnes Ulf0-1Kongsvinger

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kongsvinger 1624 · Sandnes Ulf 1461

	Kongsvinger	Draw	Sandnes Ulf
Our model	70%	16%	14%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kongsvinger (rating 1624 vs 1461).
H2H favours Kongsvinger: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kongsvinger	Sandnes Ulf
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 1.7	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	1.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.28▼	Pinn 1.34
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.77
2	6.25 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:23 +4’	1.30	5.50	6.25
22:31 +6’	1.28▼	5.50	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +5’	1.33	5.81	6.89
21:07 +34’	1.28▼	5.92▲	7.83▲
14:01 +30’	1.29▲	5.88▼	7.74▼
12:28 +26’	1.28▼	5.90▲	7.75▲
17:01 +28’	1.29▲	6.02▲	7.96▲
23:03 +8’	1.29▼	6.06▲	8.02▲
00:13 +62’	1.34▲	5.77▼	7.32▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kongsvinger 6–0–0 Sandnes Ulf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Norway Division 1	Sandnes Ulf	1-6 HT 0-3	Kongsvinger
27/08/24 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	1-0 HT 1-0	Sandnes Ulf
27/05/24 Norway Division 1	Sandnes Ulf	0-2 HT 0-2	Kongsvinger
29/10/23 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	4-0 HT 2-0	Sandnes Ulf
03/05/23 Norway Division 1	Sandnes Ulf	1-2 HT 0-1	Kongsvinger
03/11/22 Norway Division 1 Play-Offs	Sandnes Ulf	0-1 HT 0-0	Kongsvinger

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	26	19	2	5	78	40	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	17	6	3	71	33	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	17	5	4	77	42	56
4	Stabaek	26	15	4	7	63	34	49
5	Odd BK	26	13	6	7	53	39	45
6	Bryne	26	12	3	11	35	34	39
7	Hodd	26	10	5	11	42	52	35
8	Egersund	26	9	6	11	39	50	33
9	Ranheim	26	9	5	12	64	65	32
10	Strommen	26	8	6	12	46	58	30
11	Moss	26	8	5	13	40	55	29
12	Lyn 1896	26	8	4	14	40	57	28
13	Sandnes Ulf	26	7	5	14	37	50	26
14	Sogndal	25	6	5	14	39	56	23
15	Asane	26	6	5	15	37	60	22
16	Raufoss	25	6	2	17	28	64	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kongsvinger	Sandnes Ulf
Stromsgodset	1-5 L	1-4 L
Ranheim	6-2 W	1-1 D
Moss	2-0 W	1-2 L
Hodd	5-1 W	3-4 L
Raufoss	9-1 W	3-0 W
Haugesund	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kongsvinger (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kongsvinger

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-4	1-5	3	2	L
11/10	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	6-2	9	6	W
05/10	Moss Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	Hodd Norway Division 1	2-1	5-1	11	4	W
13/09	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
05/09	Raufoss Norway Division 1	3-0	9-1	8	0	W
30/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	2-2	4-4	5	5	D
26/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/08	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	Asane Norway Division 1	0-0	2-1	11	3	W

Sandnes Ulf

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-1	1-4	2	3	L
11/10	Haugesund Norway Division 1	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
03/10	Strommen Norway Division 1	2-2	3-3	11	7	D
20/09	Moss Norway Division 1	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
13/09	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
05/09	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
22/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
16/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
09/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-0	3-4	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kongsvinger vs Sandnes Ulf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kongsvinger win (70%). Probabilities: Kongsvinger 70%, draw 16%, Sandnes Ulf 14%.

How many goals are expected in Kongsvinger vs Sandnes Ulf?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Kongsvinger 2.96 · Sandnes Ulf 1.33), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kongsvinger vs Sandnes Ulf?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.