Football · Norway Division 1 · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Moss vs Asane

Team pages: Moss · Asane

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Moss2.23

Asane1.2

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Moss Draw Asane

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Moss 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLWDL

Asane 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Moss 2–1–3 Asane (6 last)

Asane2-3Moss
Moss1-2Asane
Asane2-1Moss
Moss1-1Asane
Asane1-4Moss
Asane2-1Moss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moss 1491 · Asane 1446

	Moss	Draw	Asane
Our model	60%	22%	19%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moss (rating 1491 vs 1446).
H2H favours Asane: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moss	Asane
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.54
X	4.00 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.63 ★
2	4.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.91

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +4’	1.55	4.00	4.50
01:14 +3’	1.50▼	4.20▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +308’	1.59	4.54	4.58
00:51 +26’	1.59	4.52▼	4.58
20:06 +26’	1.52▼	4.70▲	5.04▲
22:47 +21’	1.54▲	4.63▼	4.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moss 2–1–3 Asane

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 1	Asane	2-3 HT 1-0	Moss
10/08/25 Norway Division 1	Moss	1-2 HT 1-0	Asane
21/06/25 Norway Division 1	Asane	2-1 HT 0-0	Moss
06/10/24 Norway Division 1	Moss	1-1 HT 1-0	Asane
23/06/24 Norway Division 1	Asane	1-4 HT 0-2	Moss
29/10/23 Norway Division 1	Asane	2-1 HT 2-0	Moss

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stromsgodset	27	18	6	3	76	33	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	18	5	4	81	42	59
3	Haugesund	27	19	2	6	78	45	59
4	Stabaek	27	16	4	7	64	34	52
5	Odd BK	27	13	6	8	54	41	45
6	Bryne	27	12	3	12	37	38	39
7	Hodd	27	11	5	11	47	53	38
8	Ranheim	27	10	5	12	68	67	35
9	Egersund	27	9	7	11	42	53	34
10	Strommen	27	9	6	12	48	59	33
11	Lyn 1896	27	9	4	14	41	57	31
12	Moss	27	8	5	14	40	56	29
13	Sandnes Ulf	27	7	5	15	37	54	26
14	Sogndal	26	6	6	14	42	59	24
15	Asane	27	6	5	16	37	61	22
16	Raufoss	26	6	2	18	29	69	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moss	Asane
Lyn 1896	0-1 L	1-2 L
Egersund	0-0 D	2-2 D
Raufoss	2-1 W	2-1 W
Stabaek	3-2 W	0-1 L
Strommen	1-2 L	1-6 L
Sogndal	2-2 D	2-1 W
Bryne	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Moss (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moss

LDLWLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/10	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
11/10	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/10	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	12	3	L
20/09	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/09	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
05/09	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-2	3-2	4	1	W
30/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
15/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L

Asane

WLDDDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
14/10	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-2	1-6	5	1	L
11/10	Sogndal Norway Division 1	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
03/10	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
19/09	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
13/09	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-0	2-2	8	3	D
05/09	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-0	2-2	12	5	D
30/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
26/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
16/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moss vs Asane?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moss win (60%). Probabilities: Moss 60%, draw 21%, Asane 19%.

How many goals are expected in Moss vs Asane?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Moss 2.23 · Asane 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Moss vs Asane?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.