Football · Norway Division 1 · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Sogndal vs Kongsvinger

Team pages: Sogndal · Kongsvinger

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

Sogndal1.6

Kongsvinger2.39

1X2

25% 21% 55%

Sogndal Draw Kongsvinger

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Sogndal 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLLDW

Kongsvinger 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Sogndal 2–2–2 Kongsvinger (6 last)

Kongsvinger5-1Sogndal
Sogndal2-2Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger4-2Sogndal
Sogndal3-3Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger0-1Sogndal
Sogndal2-0Kongsvinger

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sogndal 1456 · Kongsvinger 1596

	Sogndal	Draw	Kongsvinger
Our model	25%	21%	55%
Market	25%	21%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kongsvinger (rating 1456 vs 1596).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sogndal	Kongsvinger
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	3.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.33

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.05 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.53
2	1.61 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +6’	3.90	4.33	1.61
22:50 +2’	3.70▼	4.33	1.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +3’	4.23	4.52	1.61
20:12 +48’	3.88▼	4.54▲	1.70▲
21:12 +60’	3.74▼	4.50▼	1.73▲
23:03 +14’	3.65▼	4.39▼	1.77▲
02:09 +20’	4.05▲	4.53▲	1.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogndal 2–2–2 Kongsvinger

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	5-1 HT 4-1	Sogndal
28/09/25 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	2-2 HT 0-1	Kongsvinger
14/06/25 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	4-2 HT 3-0	Sogndal
07/05/25 Norway Cup	Sogndal	3-3 HT 1-2	Kongsvinger
02/11/24 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	0-1 HT 0-0	Sogndal
22/06/24 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	2-0 HT 1-0	Kongsvinger

Standings · Norway Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stromsgodset	27	18	6	3	76	33	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	18	5	4	81	42	59
3	Haugesund	27	19	2	6	78	45	59
4	Stabaek	27	16	4	7	64	34	52
5	Odd BK	27	13	6	8	54	41	45
6	Bryne	27	12	3	12	37	38	39
7	Hodd	27	11	5	11	47	53	38
8	Ranheim	27	10	5	12	68	67	35
9	Egersund	27	9	7	11	42	53	34
10	Strommen	27	9	6	12	48	59	33
11	Lyn 1896	27	9	4	14	41	57	31
12	Moss	27	8	5	14	40	56	29
13	Sogndal	27	7	6	14	44	60	27
14	Sandnes Ulf	27	7	5	15	37	54	26
15	Asane	27	6	5	16	37	61	22
16	Raufoss	27	6	2	19	30	71	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sogndal	Kongsvinger
Raufoss	2-1 W	9-1 W
Egersund	3-3 D	1-1 D
Odd BK	0-1 L	1-0 W
Haugesund	0-2 L	3-2 W
Stromsgodset	2-3 L	1-5 L
Moss	2-2 D	2-0 W
Sandnes Ulf	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kongsvinger (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sogndal

WDLLDLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	2-1	7	0	W
18/10	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
14/10	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
11/10	Asane Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
20/09	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
13/09	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
05/09	Haugesund Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
30/08	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
26/08	Moss Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
16/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Kongsvinger

WWDWDWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
14/10	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-4	1-5	3	2	L
11/10	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	6-2	9	6	W
05/10	Moss Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	Hodd Norway Division 1	2-1	5-1	11	4	W
13/09	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
05/09	Raufoss Norway Division 1	3-0	9-1	8	0	W
30/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	2-2	4-4	5	5	D
26/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/08	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sogndal vs Kongsvinger?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kongsvinger win (55%). Probabilities: Sogndal 25%, draw 21%, Kongsvinger 55%.

How many goals are expected in Sogndal vs Kongsvinger?

The model expects 3.99 goals (Sogndal 1.6 · Kongsvinger 2.39), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sogndal vs Kongsvinger?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.