Football · Norway Eliteserien · 26/07, 17:00
Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Ham-Kam
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Sarpsborg1.87
Ham-Kam1.28
1X2
Sarpsborg
Draw
Ham-Kam
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sarpsborg
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Ham-Kam
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarpsborg
5–1–0
Ham-Kam
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 1511 · Ham-Kam 1486
| Sarpsborg | Draw | Ham-Kam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sarpsborg: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarpsborg | Ham-Kam | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.7 | 1.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 5–1–0 Ham-Kam
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/26 Europe Friendlies | Sarpsborg | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Ham-Kam |
| 13/02/26 Europe Friendlies | Ham-Kam | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Sarpsborg |
| 31/08/25 Norway Eliteserien | Ham-Kam | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sarpsborg |
| 11/05/25 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Ham-Kam |
| 07/03/25 Europe Friendlies | Sarpsborg | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Ham-Kam |
| 20/10/24 Norway Eliteserien | Ham-Kam | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sarpsborg |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Bodo/Glimt | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Molde | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 20 |
| 6 | SK Brann | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 19 |
| 7 | Ham-Kam | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 18 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Valerenga | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 22 | 17 |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 15 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 14 |
| 13 | KFUM | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 12 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
| 16 | IK Start | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarpsborg | Ham-Kam |
|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Lillestrom | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Valerenga | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Fredrikstad | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Tromso | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarpsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Lillestrom Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
2-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
Ham-Kam
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/06 | IFK Goteborg Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Ham-Kam?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (50%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 50%, draw 25%, Ham-Kam 25%.
How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Ham-Kam?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Sarpsborg 1.87 · Ham-Kam 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Ham-Kam?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.