Football · Norway Eliteserien · 02/08, 17:00

Prediction: Molde vs Sarpsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Molde1.92

Sarpsborg1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Molde Draw Sarpsborg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Molde 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLDLW

Sarpsborg 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Molde 1–1–4 Sarpsborg (6 last)

Sarpsborg2-1Molde
Sarpsborg1-0Molde
Molde0-2Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg2-2Molde
Molde2-4Sarpsborg
Molde4-2Sarpsborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Molde 1481 · Sarpsborg 1521

	Molde	Draw	Sarpsborg
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarpsborg (rating 1481 vs 1521).
H2H favours Sarpsborg: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Molde	Sarpsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.72
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +10’	1.65	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:19	1.71	3.79	4.70
15:19	1.72▲	3.83▲	4.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde 1–1–4 Sarpsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	2-1 HT 1-1	Molde
30/11/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	1-0 HT 1-0	Molde
30/03/25 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	0-2 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg
10/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	2-2 HT 2-2	Molde
20/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Molde	2-4 HT 1-2	Sarpsborg
08/05/24 Norway Cup	Molde	4-2 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	15	11	2	2	37	11	35
2	Viking FK	14	11	1	2	34	14	34
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	14	8	1	5	22	14	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Valerenga	14	6	2	6	22	24	20
8	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
9	Ham-Kam	14	5	3	6	20	26	18
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13	20	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	15	2	4	9	16	34	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Molde	Sarpsborg
KFUM	4-2 W	0-1 L
SK Brann	1-2 L	2-1 W
Kristiansund BK	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Molde (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Molde

LWLWWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
18/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
11/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
05/07	Rosenborg Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
28/06	Bodo/Glimt Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
21/06	KFUM Europe Friendlies	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
30/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
25/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
16/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Sarpsborg

LLWLWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/07	Lillestrom Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-3	4	2	L
29/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
16/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-2	2-3	0	1	L
09/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	11	8	W
03/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
26/04	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Molde vs Sarpsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Molde win (55%). Probabilities: Molde 55%, draw 24%, Sarpsborg 21%.

How many goals are expected in Molde vs Sarpsborg?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Molde 1.92 · Sarpsborg 1.11), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Molde vs Sarpsborg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.