Football · Norway Eliteserien · 02/08, 17:00

Prediction: Aalesund vs Tromso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Aalesund1.28

Tromso1.78

1X2

26% 25% 48%

Aalesund Draw Tromso

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aalesund 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDWDLD

Tromso 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDDWWL

Head-to-head

Aalesund 2–3–1 Tromso (6 last)

Tromso1-1Aalesund
Aalesund1-0Tromso
Tromso1-2Aalesund
Aalesund2-3Tromso
Tromso2-2Aalesund
Aalesund2-2Tromso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aalesund 1512 · Tromso 1514

	Aalesund	Draw	Tromso
Our model	26%	25%	48%
Market	26%	26%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aalesund: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aalesund	Tromso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.73
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +2’	3.50	3.60	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:18	3.85	3.76	1.87
15:19	3.67▼	3.73▼	1.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalesund 2–3–1 Tromso

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	1-1 HT 1-0	Aalesund
08/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Aalesund	1-0 HT 1-0	Tromso
08/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	1-2 HT 0-1	Aalesund
11/06/23 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	2-3 HT 1-1	Tromso
13/11/22 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	2-2 HT 1-2	Aalesund
18/04/22 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	2-2 HT 1-0	Tromso

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	15	11	2	2	37	11	35
2	Viking FK	14	11	1	2	34	14	34
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	14	8	1	5	22	14	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Valerenga	14	6	2	6	22	24	20
8	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
9	Ham-Kam	14	5	3	6	20	26	18
10	Rosenborg	13	4	3	6	15	18	15
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13	20	15
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	15	2	4	9	16	34	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalesund	Tromso
Valerenga	1-6 L	4-0 W
Molde	2-2 D	2-0 W
Ham-Kam	2-2 D	4-1 W
SK Brann	2-1 W	0-5 L
Sandefjord	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tromso (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aalesund

DLWWDDWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
16/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-6	7	0	L
11/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
27/06	Kristiansund BK Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
29/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
25/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	0	8	W
03/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
26/04	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	10	5	D

Tromso

WLDWLDDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Hradec Kralove UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
18/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
11/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
29/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-5	1	2	L
10/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
29/04	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-5	6	4	L
26/04	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-1	10	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalesund vs Tromso?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tromso win (48%). Probabilities: Aalesund 26%, draw 25%, Tromso 48%.

How many goals are expected in Aalesund vs Tromso?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Aalesund 1.28 · Tromso 1.78), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Tromso?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.