Football · Norway Eliteserien · 30/08, 19:15

Prediction: Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad

Team pages: Lillestrom · Fredrikstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Lillestrom1.79

Fredrikstad0.96

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Lillestrom Draw Fredrikstad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrom 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLLLD

Fredrikstad 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Lillestrom 1–2–3 Fredrikstad (6 last)

Fredrikstad0-2Lillestrom
Lillestrom2-2Fredrikstad
Lillestrom1-1Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad1-0Lillestrom
Fredrikstad2-1Lillestrom
Lillestrom0-3Fredrikstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1457 · Fredrikstad 1507

	Lillestrom	Draw	Fredrikstad
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	57%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fredrikstad (rating 1457 vs 1507).
H2H favours Fredrikstad: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrom	Fredrikstad
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.69
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.24 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	1.61	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +1’	1.69	3.71	5.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 1–2–3 Fredrikstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	0-2 HT 0-0	Lillestrom
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Lillestrom	2-2 HT 0-2	Fredrikstad
21/05/25 Norway Cup	Lillestrom	1-1 HT 1-0	Fredrikstad
22/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Fredrikstad	1-0 HT 1-0	Lillestrom
20/10/24 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	2-1 HT 0-0	Lillestrom
20/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-3 HT 0-1	Fredrikstad

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	17	13	1	3	40	17	40
3	Tromso	17	10	4	3	34	20	34
4	Molde	17	8	3	6	32	26	27
5	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
6	SK Brann	17	8	1	8	36	27	25
7	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	25	22	24
8	Fredrikstad	17	7	2	8	18	27	23
9	Sarpsborg	17	6	4	7	20	23	22
10	Ham-Kam	17	6	4	7	24	30	22
11	Valerenga	17	6	3	8	28	34	21
12	KFUM	17	5	4	8	19	27	19
13	Sandefjord	17	5	3	9	15	23	18
14	Kristiansund BK	17	4	3	10	15	27	15
15	Aalesund	17	2	9	6	27	41	15
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrom	Fredrikstad
Rosenborg	0-2 L	0-4 L
Bodo/Glimt	0-4 L	0-1 L
Ham-Kam	0-2 L	2-1 W
Kristiansund BK	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sandefjord	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fredrikstad (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lillestrom

LWLLWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
20/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
16/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	4	4	L

Fredrikstad

LWDWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
01/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
27/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
17/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
11/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
29/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
25/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
16/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
09/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lillestrom win (56%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 56%, draw 24%, Fredrikstad 20%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Lillestrom 1.79 · Fredrikstad 0.96), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.