Football · Norway Eliteserien · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: SK Brann vs Lillestrom

Team pages: SK Brann · Lillestrom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

SK Brann2.02

Lillestrom1.04

1X2

59% 23% 18%

SK Brann Draw Lillestrom

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Brann 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWWD

Lillestrom 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLLDL

Head-to-head

SK Brann 5–1–0 Lillestrom (6 last)

SK Brann2-1Lillestrom
Lillestrom0-2SK Brann
Lillestrom0-2SK Brann
SK Brann2-2Lillestrom
SK Brann2-0Lillestrom
Lillestrom2-3SK Brann

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Brann (rating 1559 vs 1467).
H2H favours SK Brann: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Brann	Lillestrom
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:29

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.00
2	3.65 → 3.65	Pinn 3.65

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:29	1.90	4.00	3.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Brann 5–1–0 Lillestrom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	2-1 HT 1-0	Lillestrom
12/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-2 HT 0-0	SK Brann
01/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	0-2 HT 0-1	SK Brann
11/06/23 Norway Eliteserien	SK Brann	2-2 HT 0-1	Lillestrom
20/05/23 Norway Cup	SK Brann	2-0 HT 1-0	Lillestrom
11/09/21 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	2-3 HT 0-1	SK Brann

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	18	14	2	2	47	14	44
2	Viking FK	18	14	1	3	42	18	43
3	Tromso	18	10	5	3	34	20	35
4	Molde	18	9	3	6	36	29	30
5	SK Brann	18	8	2	8	36	27	26
6	Lillestrom	18	8	2	8	24	25	26
7	Fredrikstad	18	8	2	8	22	28	26
8	Rosenborg	18	7	3	8	27	26	24
9	Sarpsborg	18	6	5	7	20	23	23
10	Ham-Kam	18	6	5	7	26	32	23
11	Valerenga	18	6	3	9	31	38	21
12	Sandefjord	18	5	4	9	15	23	19
13	KFUM	18	5	4	9	20	31	19
14	Kristiansund BK	18	4	4	10	17	29	16
15	Aalesund	18	2	9	7	28	43	15
16	IK Start	18	3	4	11	20	39	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Brann	Lillestrom
Sandefjord	0-0 D	3-1 W
Ham-Kam	3-0 W	0-2 L
Rosenborg	3-2 W	0-2 L
Bodo/Glimt	1-3 L	0-4 L
KFUM	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SK Brann (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Brann

WLLLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
02/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	2-3	10	5	L
18/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
29/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
24/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
20/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
16/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	6	5	W

Lillestrom

WLLWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
20/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
16/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Brann vs Lillestrom?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Brann win (59%). Probabilities: SK Brann 59%, draw 23%, Lillestrom 18%.

How many goals are expected in SK Brann vs Lillestrom?

The model expects 3.05 goals (SK Brann 2.02 · Lillestrom 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Brann vs Lillestrom?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.