Football · Norway Eliteserien · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Valerenga

Team pages: Sarpsborg · Valerenga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Sarpsborg1.98

Valerenga1.51

1X2

48% 24% 29%

Sarpsborg Draw Valerenga

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Valerenga 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 0–1–5 Valerenga (6 last)

Valerenga3-2Sarpsborg
Valerenga4-0Sarpsborg
Valerenga4-1Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg1-1Valerenga
Valerenga1-0Sarpsborg
Valerenga5-3Sarpsborg

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valerenga: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg	Valerenga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.83

Under 3.252.01

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:55

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.18▲	Pinn 2.18
X	3.81 → 3.84▲	Pinn 3.84
2	3.01 → 3.04▲	Pinn 3.04

See the full journey (4)

Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:26 +1’	2.15	3.81	3.01
11:36 +2’	2.17▲	3.86▲	3.04▲
15:50 +4’	2.18▲	3.81▼	3.05▲
17:52 +2’	2.18	3.84▲	3.04▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 0–1–5 Valerenga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-2 HT 2-2	Sarpsborg
17/08/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	4-0 HT 2-0	Sarpsborg
13/06/25 Europe Friendlies	Valerenga	4-1 HT 2-1	Sarpsborg
06/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	1-1 HT 0-1	Valerenga
01/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Valerenga	1-0 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
09/03/24 Europe Friendlies	Valerenga	5-3 HT 2-1	Sarpsborg

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	18	14	2	2	47	14	44
2	Viking FK	18	14	1	3	42	18	43
3	Tromso	18	10	5	3	34	20	35
4	Molde	18	9	3	6	36	29	30
5	SK Brann	18	8	2	8	36	27	26
6	Lillestrom	18	8	2	8	24	25	26
7	Fredrikstad	18	8	2	8	22	28	26
8	Rosenborg	18	7	3	8	27	26	24
9	Sarpsborg	18	6	5	7	20	23	23
10	Ham-Kam	18	6	5	7	26	32	23
11	Valerenga	18	6	3	9	31	38	21
12	Sandefjord	18	5	4	9	15	23	19
13	KFUM	18	5	4	9	20	31	19
14	Kristiansund BK	18	4	4	10	17	29	16
15	Aalesund	18	2	9	7	28	43	15
16	IK Start	18	3	4	11	20	39	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg	Valerenga
Tromso	0-0 D	0-4 L
Molde	3-3 D	3-4 L
Ham-Kam	1-0 W	0-3 L
Kristiansund BK	0-0 D	3-1 W
SK Brann	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sarpsborg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
02/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	4	2	D
26/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
29/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
16/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-2	2-3	0	1	L

Valerenga

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	3-4	3-4	5	5	L
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
31/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	3-0	6-1	8	0	W
11/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
29/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
25/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	7	1	L
16/05	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	2-2	3-2	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Valerenga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (48%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 48%, draw 24%, Valerenga 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Valerenga?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Sarpsborg 1.98 · Valerenga 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Valerenga?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.