Football · Norway Eliteserien · 06/09, 19:15

Prediction: Kristiansund BK vs Tromso

Team pages: Kristiansund BK · Tromso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Kristiansund BK1

Tromso1.75

1X2

21% 24% 54%

Kristiansund BK Draw Tromso

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kristiansund BK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLWLD

Tromso 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDWWWLD

Head-to-head

Kristiansund BK 2–1–3 Tromso (6 last)

Tromso2-0Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK1-3Tromso
Tromso2-1Kristiansund BK
Tromso2-3Kristiansund BK
Tromso0-0Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK1-0Tromso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kristiansund BK 1447 · Tromso 1565

	Kristiansund BK	Draw	Tromso
Our model	20%	26%	54%
Market	22%	23%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tromso (rating 1447 vs 1565).
H2H favours Tromso: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kristiansund BK	Tromso
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.77 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.02
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:31 +3’	4.33	4.00	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:29	4.52	3.95	1.70
11:40	4.58▲	4.00▲	1.71▲
17:52 +8’	4.78▲	4.08▲	1.68▼
12:50	4.77▼	4.02▼	1.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kristiansund BK 2–1–3 Tromso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	2-0 HT 0-0	Kristiansund BK
30/11/25 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	1-3 HT 0-3	Tromso
24/09/25 Norway Cup	Tromso	2-1 HT 2-0	Kristiansund BK
20/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	2-3 HT 1-0	Kristiansund BK
28/07/24 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	0-0 HT 0-0	Kristiansund BK
21/04/24 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	1-0 HT 1-0	Tromso

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	18	14	2	2	47	14	44
2	Viking FK	18	14	1	3	42	18	43
3	Tromso	18	10	5	3	34	20	35
4	Molde	18	9	3	6	36	29	30
5	SK Brann	18	8	2	8	36	27	26
6	Lillestrom	18	8	2	8	24	25	26
7	Fredrikstad	18	8	2	8	22	28	26
8	Rosenborg	18	7	3	8	27	26	24
9	Sarpsborg	18	6	5	7	20	23	23
10	Ham-Kam	18	6	5	7	26	32	23
11	Valerenga	18	6	3	9	31	38	21
12	Sandefjord	18	5	4	9	15	23	19
13	KFUM	18	5	4	9	20	31	19
14	Kristiansund BK	18	4	4	10	17	29	16
15	Aalesund	18	2	9	7	28	43	15
16	IK Start	18	3	4	11	20	39	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kristiansund BK	Tromso
Ham-Kam	2-2 D	4-1 W
Molde	2-1 W	2-3 L
KFUM	1-2 L	0-0 D
IK Start	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sarpsborg	0-0 D	0-0 D
Valerenga	1-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tromso (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kristiansund BK

WLLLDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
16/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
02/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	3	1	L
25/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
18/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
29/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
24/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
20/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	3	11	W

Tromso

DWLDDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
02/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	6-2	4	1	W
18/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
11/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
29/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-5	1	2	L
10/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tromso win (54%). Probabilities: Kristiansund BK 21%, draw 24%, Tromso 54%.

How many goals are expected in Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Kristiansund BK 1 · Tromso 1.75), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.