Football · Norway Eliteserien · 13/09, 19:15

Prediction: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg

Team pages: Fredrikstad · Sarpsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Fredrikstad1.35

Sarpsborg1.25

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Fredrikstad Draw Sarpsborg

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Fredrikstad 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Sarpsborg 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fredrikstad 4–1–1 Sarpsborg (6 last)

Sarpsborg2-1Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad2-1Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg0-2Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad1-1Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg0-4Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg0-1Fredrikstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredrikstad 1541 · Sarpsborg 1510

	Fredrikstad	Draw	Sarpsborg
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fredrikstad: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fredrikstad	Sarpsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 04:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.46
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.62
2	2.63 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.82 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +9’	2.38	3.50	2.63
15:41 +6’	2.40▲	3.60▲	2.63
14:45 +59’	2.40	3.50▼	2.70▲
03:42 +42’	2.38▼	3.60▲	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:52 +101’	2.44	3.61	2.77
19:27 +51’	2.47▲	3.61	2.73▼
15:42 +2’	2.45▼	3.58▼	2.77▲
19:17 +37’	2.48▲	3.61▲	2.80▲
22:12 +35’	2.46▼	3.62▲	2.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredrikstad 4–1–1 Sarpsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	2-1 HT 1-1	Fredrikstad
08/03/26 Norway Cup	Fredrikstad	2-1 HT 1-1	Sarpsborg
08/11/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-2 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad
01/06/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	1-1 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
12/04/25 Norway Cup	Sarpsborg	0-4 HT 0-1	Fredrikstad
28/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-1 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	19	15	2	2	49	15	47
2	Viking FK	19	14	2	3	43	19	44
3	Tromso	20	10	5	5	37	27	35
4	Molde	19	10	3	6	38	29	33
5	Lillestrom	20	10	2	8	28	26	32
6	Rosenborg	20	9	3	8	36	29	30
7	SK Brann	19	8	2	9	37	29	26
8	Fredrikstad	19	8	2	9	23	30	26
9	Sarpsborg	19	6	6	7	22	25	24
10	Ham-Kam	19	6	5	8	26	36	23
11	Valerenga	20	6	4	10	33	42	22
12	Sandefjord	19	5	5	9	16	24	20
13	Kristiansund BK	19	5	4	10	19	29	19
14	KFUM	19	5	4	10	20	33	19
15	Aalesund	19	3	9	7	30	43	18
16	IK Start	19	3	4	12	20	41	13

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredrikstad	Sarpsborg
Kristiansund BK	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sandefjord	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fredrikstad (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fredrikstad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
16/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
01/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
27/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
17/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
11/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
29/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
25/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Sarpsborg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
30/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
02/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	4	2	D
26/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
12/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
29/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fredrikstad win (39%). Probabilities: Fredrikstad 39%, draw 27%, Sarpsborg 34%.

How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Fredrikstad 1.35 · Sarpsborg 1.25), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.