Football · Norway Eliteserien · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: Viking FK vs Lillestrom

Team pages: Viking FK · Lillestrom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Viking FK1.96

Lillestrom1.17

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Viking FK Draw Lillestrom

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Viking FK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWLWD

Lillestrom 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLDLWW

Head-to-head

Viking FK 4–1–1 Lillestrom (6 last)

Lillestrom1-2Viking FK
Lillestrom1-4Viking FK
Viking FK1-4Lillestrom
Lillestrom1-3Viking FK
Viking FK2-0Lillestrom
Viking FK2-2Lillestrom

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1585 vs 1521).
H2H favours Viking FK: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viking FK	Lillestrom
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 7.4	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.96

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.50
X	4.82 → 4.82	Pinn 4.82
2	5.57 → 5.57	Pinn 5.57

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +372’	1.50	4.82	5.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viking FK 4–1–1 Lillestrom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	1-2 HT 0-1	Viking FK
29/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	1-4 HT 0-1	Viking FK
16/05/24 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	1-4 HT 0-3	Lillestrom
13/08/23 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	1-3 HT 0-0	Viking FK
15/04/23 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	2-0 HT 0-0	Lillestrom
26/02/23 Europe Friendlies	Viking FK	2-2 HT 2-1	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	19	15	2	2	49	15	47
2	Viking FK	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
3	Molde	20	11	3	6	43	30	36
4	Tromso	20	10	5	5	37	27	35
5	Lillestrom	20	10	2	8	28	26	32
6	Rosenborg	20	9	3	8	36	29	30
7	Fredrikstad	20	8	3	9	24	31	27
8	SK Brann	20	8	2	10	37	31	26
9	Sarpsborg	20	6	7	7	23	26	25
10	Ham-Kam	20	6	5	9	27	41	23
11	Valerenga	20	6	4	10	33	42	22
12	KFUM	20	6	4	10	22	34	22
13	Sandefjord	19	5	5	9	16	24	20
14	Kristiansund BK	20	5	4	11	20	37	19
15	Aalesund	20	3	9	8	31	45	18
16	IK Start	20	4	4	12	22	41	16

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Viking FK

WLWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
30/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
14/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	6	0	L
08/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	11	5	W
01/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-0	5	5	W
26/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
22/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
12/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
24/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	6	W

Lillestrom

LWWLLLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
30/08	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-2	1-4	10	3	L
15/08	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
09/08	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Viking FK win (55%). Probabilities: Viking FK 55%, draw 24%, Lillestrom 21%.

How many goals are expected in Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Viking FK 1.96 · Lillestrom 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.