Football · Norway Eliteserien · 20/09, 14:30

Prediction: Valerenga vs Fredrikstad

Team pages: Valerenga · Fredrikstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Valerenga1.7

Fredrikstad1.62

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Valerenga Draw Fredrikstad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Fredrikstad 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valerenga 1–3–2 Fredrikstad (6 last)

Valerenga3-1Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad1-1Valerenga
Valerenga1-2Fredrikstad
Valerenga1-1Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad2-0Valerenga
Valerenga0-0Fredrikstad

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fredrikstad (rating 1490 vs 1532).
H2H favours Fredrikstad: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga	Fredrikstad
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.6	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.04

Under 3.251.81

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.78 → 1.78	Pinn 1.78
X	4.11 → 4.11	Pinn 4.11
2	4.06 → 4.06	Pinn 4.06

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +231’	1.78	4.11	4.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga 1–3–2 Fredrikstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Valerenga	3-1 HT 3-1	Fredrikstad
12/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	1-1 HT 0-1	Valerenga
23/09/25 Norway Cup	Valerenga	1-2 HT 0-1	Fredrikstad
05/07/25 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	1-1 HT 1-1	Fredrikstad
09/04/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fredrikstad	2-0 HT 1-0	Valerenga
06/10/24 Norway Cup	Valerenga	0-0 HT 0-0	Fredrikstad

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	19	15	2	2	49	15	47
2	Viking FK	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
3	Molde	20	11	3	6	43	30	36
4	Tromso	20	10	5	5	37	27	35
5	Lillestrom	20	10	2	8	28	26	32
6	Rosenborg	20	9	3	8	36	29	30
7	Fredrikstad	20	8	3	9	24	31	27
8	SK Brann	20	8	2	10	37	31	26
9	Sarpsborg	20	6	7	7	23	26	25
10	Ham-Kam	20	6	5	9	27	41	23
11	Valerenga	20	6	4	10	33	42	22
12	KFUM	20	6	4	10	22	34	22
13	Sandefjord	19	5	5	9	16	24	20
14	Kristiansund BK	20	5	4	11	20	37	19
15	Aalesund	20	3	9	8	31	45	18
16	IK Start	20	4	4	12	22	41	16

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga	Fredrikstad
Lillestrom	0-2 L	4-1 W
Bodo/Glimt	1-2 L	1-2 L
Kristiansund BK	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
06/09	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
30/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	3-4	3-4	5	5	L
16/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	2-4	5-5	5	1	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
31/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	3-0	6-1	8	0	W
11/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
29/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W

Fredrikstad

DWLLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
16/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
01/08	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
27/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
17/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
11/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
29/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
25/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valerenga win (39%). Probabilities: Valerenga 39%, draw 25%, Fredrikstad 36%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Valerenga 1.7 · Fredrikstad 1.62), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.