Football · Norway Eliteserien · 19/09, 18:00
Prediction: Molde vs Aalesund
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.33Total
Molde2.68
Aalesund1.65
1X2
Molde
Draw
Aalesund
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Molde
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Aalesund
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Molde
4–1–1
Aalesund
(6 last)
- Aalesund2-2Molde
- Molde4-1Aalesund
- Aalesund3-1Molde
- Molde3-0Aalesund
- Aalesund0-3Molde
- Molde3-0Aalesund
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Molde (rating 1578 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Molde: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Molde | Aalesund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.1 | 2.7 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde 4–1–1 Aalesund
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Molde |
| 27/02/26 Club Friendly List | Molde | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Aalesund |
| 16/05/23 Norway Eliteserien | Aalesund | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Molde |
| 03/05/23 Norway Eliteserien | Molde | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Aalesund |
| 25/03/23 Europe Friendlies | Aalesund | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Molde |
| 18/09/22 Norway Eliteserien | Molde | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Aalesund |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 47 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 20 | 47 |
| 3 | Molde | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 30 | 36 |
| 4 | Tromso | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 35 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 29 | 30 |
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 31 | 27 |
| 8 | SK Brann | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 31 | 26 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 25 |
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 41 | 23 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 42 | 22 |
| 12 | KFUM | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 34 | 22 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 20 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 37 | 19 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 45 | 18 |
| 16 | IK Start | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 41 | 16 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Molde | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| Ham-Kam | 5-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Valerenga | 4-3 W | 5-5 D |
| Tromso | 3-2 W | 2-6 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Molde (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Molde
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
4-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/07 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Aalesund
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
4-2 | 5-5 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-6 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/07 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
0-3 | 1-6 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Molde vs Aalesund?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Molde win (59%). Probabilities: Molde 59%, draw 19%, Aalesund 22%.
How many goals are expected in Molde vs Aalesund?
The model expects 4.33 goals (Molde 2.68 · Aalesund 1.65), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Aalesund?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.