Football · Norway Eliteserien · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: Tromso vs Ham-Kam

Team pages: Tromso · Ham-Kam

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Tromso1.94

Ham-Kam1.16

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Tromso Draw Ham-Kam

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tromso 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWLDLL

Ham-Kam 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWDLDL

Head-to-head

Tromso 3–2–1 Ham-Kam (6 last)

Ham-Kam1-4Tromso
Tromso1-0Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam1-3Tromso
Tromso3-3Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam0-0Tromso
Tromso0-1Ham-Kam

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tromso (rating 1530 vs 1467).
H2H favours Tromso: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tromso	Ham-Kam
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.03

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.53
X	4.47 → 4.47	Pinn 4.47
2	5.65 → 5.65	Pinn 5.65

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +371’	1.53	4.47	5.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tromso 3–2–1 Ham-Kam

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	1-4 HT 0-1	Tromso
21/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	1-0 HT 0-0	Ham-Kam
22/06/25 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	1-3 HT 0-2	Tromso
03/11/24 Norway Eliteserien	Tromso	3-3 HT 1-2	Ham-Kam
07/07/24 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	0-0 HT 0-0	Tromso
23/03/24 Europe Friendlies	Tromso	0-1 HT 0-1	Ham-Kam

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	19	15	2	2	49	15	47
2	Viking FK	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
3	Molde	20	11	3	6	43	30	36
4	Tromso	20	10	5	5	37	27	35
5	Lillestrom	20	10	2	8	28	26	32
6	Rosenborg	20	9	3	8	36	29	30
7	Fredrikstad	20	8	3	9	24	31	27
8	SK Brann	20	8	2	10	37	31	26
9	Sarpsborg	20	6	7	7	23	26	25
10	Ham-Kam	20	6	5	9	27	41	23
11	Valerenga	20	6	4	10	33	42	22
12	KFUM	20	6	4	10	22	34	22
13	Sandefjord	19	5	5	9	16	24	20
14	Kristiansund BK	20	5	4	11	20	37	19
15	Aalesund	20	3	9	8	31	45	18
16	IK Start	20	4	4	12	22	41	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tromso	Ham-Kam
Rosenborg	3-5 L	0-4 L
Kristiansund BK	0-2 L	2-2 D
Sarpsborg	0-0 D	0-1 L
Aalesund	6-2 W	1-1 D
Valerenga	4-0 W	3-0 W
Bodo/Glimt	0-5 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tromso (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tromso

LDDWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-4	3-5	4	5	L
06/09	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
30/08	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
02/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	6-2	4	1	W
18/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	4-1	5	0	W
11/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
29/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-5	1	2	L

Ham-Kam

DDLLLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
30/08	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
16/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
09/08	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
31/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
26/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
22/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-4	1	0	L
12/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
29/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tromso win (55%). Probabilities: Tromso 55%, draw 24%, Ham-Kam 21%.

How many goals are expected in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Tromso 1.94 · Ham-Kam 1.16), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.